Joaquin Coming to Gulf?

 

NHC has increased their probability for a named storm (Joaquin) to form in the southern Gulf late Sunday into Monday.  What I’m seeing on satellite loops tonight is a weak swirl just east of the tip of the Yucatan,  What is also apparent is strong SW wind shear that has blown all T-Storms well to the east, During the next 2 days, than SW shear will prevent any major system from forming.  In addition, whatever does develop should stay to our east keeping us on the drier/weaker side.  Most computer projections track this system into NW Florida where some heavy (2-4”) rains may fall.  For now, any danger appears to be well east of Louisiana.  Remember, wind shear is more important than water temps.  Stay tuned!