Tuesday, September 8, 2015

Model Hype Begins

Since we are in the historically most active part of hurricane season, one does not just blow off any computer model that forecasts a storm forming in the Gulf…even though that formation is not until NEXT WEEK!   Yep, next week.  We all know the NHC 5 day cone of error is 200-250 miles +, so seeing a forecast at day 7 with a storm south of the Louisiana coast should not alarm anyone.  However, it’s the European model that is so bullish and that is the model that has been far superior to the U.S. GFS model.  My take is I want to be the “bullseye” at 5-7 days out as the storm will likely change course many times taking the threat far from us.  Let’s just pay attention for the next several days as there is nothing down over the Gulf except an upper low that makes tropical formation near impossible right now.


It now appears a cold front will have enough push from a deepening east coast trough to clear our coast by Saturday daybreak.  We stay hot & summer-like for the next couple of days with increasing shower chances as the front gets closer.  Slightly cooler and much drier air will filter in especially for Sunday & Monday mornings with the North Shore dipping into the 50s & some 60s south away from Lake P.   it’s this frontal boundary ,that should become stationary over the central Gulf, that the European says low pressure will develop next week.  Could that happen?  Sure as we are at the peak of hurricane activity historically.   Will that happen?   Probably not, but let’s not ignore the Tropics yet.  Stay tuned!

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