In this era of computer models, what a forecaster looks for is consistency in model runs. Last night hinted at another rain event coming this weekend and today’s model’s paint the same picture. It is not if it will rain on Halloween, but when. That is the uncertainty, when , how much and how intense. Local officials have already shifted the trick or treating to Friday night and it appears that is a wise decision. My only reservation is I remember the Mayor of NYC shutting down everything because computer models predicted 1-2 feet of snow coming 2 days ahead of time. Shifting Trick or Treating is far different than closing down a city.
In the short term, a weak front slides through before daybreak shifting winds around to the north. It will bring little in the way of cool air. Winds return back to the east on Friday and shift back to the south on Saturday. Look for rising water again, but the duration of SE-S winds will not be as long as last weekend. After a dry Thursday & Friday, showers begin popping up as soon as noon time on Saturday with the heaviest rains coming through between 5-8 PM. It’s too soon to know about a severe threat, but some storms will be strong. Most of the rains will be gone before daybreak on Sunday. Halloween evening looks soggy. Let’s see how it plays out. Stay tuned!