A deepening upper trough is heading out of Arizona tonight and is tapping moisture from the Pacific triggering widespread showers over much of the Southwest. As a surface low begins to develop in south Texas on Friday, a large area of showers and storms will increase and spread our way for Saturday. Computer models have different solutions regarding timing and intensity. My concern is we could see some “training storms” late Saturday into Sunday that could cause some street flooding. Showers could linger well into Sunday making this our 2nd lost weekend in a row. There is the potential for 2-4”+ rainfall so we need to pay attention again this weekend. I’m sure we’ll see more model fluctuations tomorrow, but the need to shift Halloween Trick or Treating to Friday seems well founded.
In the short term, Friday will start sunny with cool morning lows (50s) quickly warming to near 80 by noon. Clouds will increase late in the day, but no rain is expected. Saturday will begin dry. Some models hold the bulk of the rain until after dark. Our VIPIR model brings some showers in before noon. That’s quite a spread. Both have heavy rains falling between midnight & 9 AM on Sunday. Stay tuned!