Wednesday, November 4, 2015

Forecast Uncertainty

I’m always amazed watching how the public interprets weather forecasts.  In the past year the push has been to get your weather on your phone which takes the numbers right off NWS computer guidance.   People really believe there is some skill in the 7-10 “forecast”.   That’s because they believe…if it’s on my phone, it must be right.  Don’t know what to say except no forecaster is that good.  Oh sure, there is some skill in the 2-3 day time frame, less at 4-5 days and frankly very little beyond that.   Yet folks ask all the time what will happen this weekend.   Well let’s give it a try.  Thursday through Saturday morning we will be warm & mostly dry.  Mornings begins with low clouds & fog with some sunny breaks during the day.  Highs should top 80 with plenty of humidity.  Thursday looks mostly dry (<5%), Friday few (30%) PM showers, Saturday better rain chances (60-70%).  Sunday is the real question mark.  A slow moving cold front will stagger through SE LA/MS.   IF it has enough push, it could take all the rain off our coast for Sunday making Sunday Dry, but noticeably cooler 60s.   So much will depend on the movement of the front.  Stay tuned!

No comments: