Wednesday, January 20, 2016

Uncertainty of the Forecast

The good thing about forecasting weather is you don’t have to wait very long to see if you verify. (Unlike the AGW crowd that alarms 50-100 years from now).  We have several possibilities to watch tonight.  1) SPC has us in the “slight” risk area for severe storms late Thursday into Friday.  2)  Almost all models are indicating a major (1-3 FEET !) snow storm will develop and bury most of the big cities in the Northeast Friday night into Saturday.    The difficulty in the forecast comes from where the track of the low goes.    25-50 mile shift in track could mean the difference of getting 2” or 2 feet!   Regardless of track, many folks will face difficult, if not impossible travel conditions by mid day Friday into Saturday.   Locally, our greatest risk for storms appears to be ahead of a strong cold front that arrives in the 9 PM to midnight time frame tomorrow night.   Temps could soar into the 70s on Thursday if we see some sunny breaks.  By Friday morning Arctic air will be here with temps staying in the 40s all day.   Strong, gusty NW winds will make it feel like it’s in the 20s.   Our coldest morning should come on Sunday when skies will be clear & winds will be light.  North Shore could dip to 20-25 with the South shore 28-32.  Freeze precautions will be needed.  You’ll need to drain your water hoses and cover your tender plants.  Stay tuned!

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