Sunday, June 5, 2016

Colin Forming in Southern Gulf...

I always took pride in storytelling things other than just what NHC had in their daily discussions.  After all, if all I did was repeat what they said, why would you watch?   I always tried to give “add on” information.  Stuff that I saw on satellite loops or knew from past experience.  Watching The Weather Channel this morning is like reading the NHC discussion.  They provide no additional info.  Like…the early visible satellite loops show a broad circulation about 80 miles NORTH of the Yucatan, while there has been a blow up of clouds just east of Cozumel.   What does that tell me?   There must be some wind shear over the Gulf that has kept clouds from forming around this low level circulation leaving it exposed.  TWC says this low will move into a “more favorable” environment over night and on Monday without mentioning why.  Like…it will drift over the southern “Loop current” of warmest waters coming out of the Caribbean into the southern Gulf.   So the question they should be asking is this.  Will shear win out and allow just a weak TD/TS to form?  Or will this system gain enough energy moving over the warmest waters to overcome the shear and develop into a strong Tropical Storm?   Those are the things I expect to see METEOROLOGISTS explain.  What we get are weather REPORTERS  saying what NHC puts out with no additional information.   But that’s just me venting this morning.   Bottom line, whatever forms will stay well to our south and east with the only impacts on Louisiana being some higher seas well offshore and some drier air filtering in on Monday & Tuesday as this system moves up the east coast.  Stay tuned!

1 comment:

angela coudrain said...

Thank you Bob! I'm so glad you are posting this blog. Will stay tuned for your next update!! (Headed to Orlando on Thursday and would hate for Colin to dampen our trip!!)You are the best at explaining why the weather is happening the way it is... 😀