Sunday, July 31, 2016

Pay Attention Time

As we begin August, we know hurricane activity typically ramps up.  I’ve just returned from the Grand isle Tarpon Rodeo where I’ve followed a fast moving tropical wave  move across the Atlantic into the Eastern Caribbean,  Historically, if a tropical disturbance doesn’t develop before reaching the eastern Caribbean, it won’t until it gets farther to the west.   However, today’s daylight (visible) satellite loop clearly showed a mid-level rotation.  NHC says there are no signs of a surface circulation, however, tonight’s infrared loop shows a burst of T-Storms flaring south of Puerto Rico about where this afternoon’s circulation was.   Knowing NHC, they will be very careful to upgrade this wave until they have better information that the system has reach the surface.   It continues racing to the west tonight and that is good news for us since current motion will take this system into the Yucatan Peninsula later this week.  What we need to pay attention for is a slowdown in motion that could allow a surface circulation to form.    As I have always said in the past, I can’t tell you where a storm is going until the storm has formed.  So far we have no storm, but satellite loops are indicating something is trying to get better organized.  Unless computer models are out to lunch, whatever forms will not be a problem for the northern Gulf.   Still, it’s pay attention time for the next 8-10 weeks.  Hurry October!


The Weather Channel announced today that Dave Schwartz, their 22 year veteran broadcaster, lost his battle to cancer.  I always admire those who take a difficult situation like Dave’s and try to help others who share similar misery.  Dave went public about his cancer, not for pity, but to encourage others to not give up.  He fought the good fight working on-air almost to the end.   We should never take tomorrow for granted.

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