Saturday, August 27, 2016

Still Quiet...but Not For Long?

The atmosphere remains in a hostile environment for tropical development with upper lows all over the play.   On upper low is over the extreme NW Gulf with a reflection of a lower level circulation on satellite & radar.  NHC gives this a 0% chance for development but for western Louisiana, I’d be a little nervous.  One of the “good” things coming out of last week’s flooding rains is the fact they cooled the water temps. In the northern Gulf.   Another upper low is over the western Caribbean with a third east of Florida.   Perhaps these upper lows are hindering any surface development?  My colleague with Weather Bell Analytics, Joe D’Aleo believes it’s more connected to the unfavorable (sinking) phase of the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation).  Whatever, let’s hope it continues.  I am seeing what appears to be a surface circulation trying to spin up just north of Cuba.  This is the area NHC is calling Invest 99-L.  Since it is so close to land, I don’t expect much development until it clears the Florida Straits & enters the SE Gulf late Sunday.   Computer models have been terrible (esp. the Euro) trying to predict movement/development of this system and that goes back to the models not handling weaker storms very well.   So as I said last night, we watch & we wait to see what might happen after 99-L gets over the eastern Gulf.   RIGHT NOW, the MJO is our friend.  Stay tuned!

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