Friday, September 23, 2016

Hurricane in Gulf in 2 weeks?

Yep, that’s what the GFS is doing…bringing a strong hurricane into the Gulf & then northward into Louisiana 2 weeks from today.  Could that happen?  Sure.  And the Saints might go to the Super Bowl this year too!   Bottom line, computer models often form storms way out (10-14 days) that never develop.  So far we have nothing to track except a weak wave that has moved off of Africa.   The only thing that supports development by the end of next week & into October is the Rising air phase of the MJO that shifts from the eastern Pacific into the Gulf & Caribbean.   But you have to have some type of disturbance first & RIGHT NOW, we have nothing going on.    Let’s keep an eye on that system in the Atlantic & future model runs that will either show consistency that a storm might be coming, or that today’s model run was out to lunch.   What is more likely to happen late next week is this.  A weak cold front will stagger into the Gulf & something might try to spin up on the SW end of it way down in the Gulf.   So instead of worrying about something so far away, we may need to pay attention to something much closer to home…but again that’s at the end of NEXT WEEK.  Enjoy this weekend even though it won’t feel like Fall.

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