Sunday, September 4, 2016

Invest 92L...Here We Go Again?

After watching TWC give a “mea Culpa” this morning regarding the overhyping of Hermine’s effects on the Northeast, I hope they don’t start the same process with new Invest 92L that we had with Hermine.  Stephanie Abrams was on with Dr. Rick Knabb this morning almost apologizing for the eastward turn of Hermine.  Watching the Golf tourney from Boston this afternoon, one of the announcers even said he would never believe a weatherman again.    Bad forecast + overhype = lack of future trust.   Remember we had to endure tracking Hermine for 2 weeks from Invest to TD to TS to Hurricane.     What the public doesn’t understand is the UNCERTAINTY of the forecast.   The media has to do a better job of relating that uncertainty to their viewers.  Add in the local politicians using words like the NYC Mayor ( Deadly, Dangerous)& we have a recipe for total misunderstanding the threat.   When they don’t understand the uncertainty, how can we expect regular folk to believe the warnings?   But let’s focus on the next system.    92L is moving thru the Leeward Islands tonight and will enter the eastern Caribbean on Monday.   With the MJO in the favorable (rising air) phase, 92L will likely develop somewhere down the road.  With an upper high expected to develop over us later this week, we should be protected from any tropical threats for at least a week.  IF 92L does organize into Ian, it will be swept across the western Caribbean and southern Gulf into Mexico or south Texas.   It will not threaten the northern Gulf.  Enjoy Labor Day before it’s back to work & school on Tuesday.  Stay tuned!

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