Sunday, September 25, 2016

Matthew Still Coming...but Where?

For the 4th day in a row, computer models are indicating a major hurricane will form in the central Caribbean late this week.  What keeps changing is the future track this storm will take.   Today’s runs have really shifted much farther to the east which is good news for us.  In fact, if we can believe the models, future Matthew will even stay well east of Florida and steam northward offshore of the eastern coast of the U.S.  So what’s the concern?  First, we have nothing to track yet except a fast moving tropical wave that has no organized storms with it.  This system will pass over the Windward Islands late Monday into Tuesday entering the Caribbean .  History has told us computer models do not handle weak systems very well.   Secondly,  Once a storm gets better organized and stronger, the models do much better, but we’re not there yet.   So I don’t want the “Fat Lady” to start heading to the stage until we know for sure this disturbance will not enter the Gulf.    Stay tuned!


Locally, the long awaited first real cold front will reach us  this week.  It won’t be a sweater blaster, but more  a humidity buster.  It will end our streak of record breaking highs and get us closer to where we should be.  The big difference will come in our night time temps that should drop into the 50s on the North Shore and 60s away from Lake P. south.  Get ready to enjoy October, my favorite month.

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