Sunday, September 11, 2016

Still No Ian...

Worldwide, we now have 2 named storms and 2 Tropical Depressions.  They are all located in the Pacific  and pose no threat to the U.S.   The weak circulation in the Gulf is still there this afternoon but it has no storms with it despite having a well-defined circulation.  Upper wind shear will keep it that way.   There is a growing system well east of the Leeward Islands that should become a TD by tomorrow.  All computer models keep it east of Bermuda and no threat to the U.S.   So as we are 1/3 through September, we have roughly 20-25 days to sweat out a major storm IF cold fronts start coming.  Was reading comments that this long, hot summer will continue for several more weeks, so we will  probably need to stay alert well into October.   In the short term, the next 7-10 days look quiet regarding tropical activity in the Gulf & Caribbean.


I find it interesting about NOAA’s comments trying to connect the recent flooding rains in southeast Louisiana to Global Warming.  These are the same folks who, in the past, have said no single weather event can be connected to AGW.   Yet they keep trying to do so.  Recall…big NE snow storm, global warming.   Big Arctic Blast (Polar Vortex)…global warming.  Summer heat wave…global warming.   Floods & droughts…global warming.   Every weather event…global warming.   It means whatever happens, they cannot be wrong.    However, those of us who know history and the relationship of weather & climate to CYCLES are far more cautious to place the blame as the atmosphere is a complex problem that is far from being totally understood.   If the Creator gives me another 10-15 years on this Planet, I would love to be around when the next cooling cycle begins.   I’m gonna stay tuned!

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