Thursday, October 6, 2016

Matthew Hype in Full Overdrive

I am back after a wonderful 3 day birthday bash at the beach.  I have watched various news/weather channels describe Hurricane Matthew in some silly ways.  For example…” 12.3 million people are currently under hurricane warnings”.  True, but I have seen no one point out that only a very small percentage (10%?) will actually receive ground truth hurricane force winds.    Another…Several mayor/emergency managers are pushing mandatory evacuation without mentioning that not everyone needs to go (Remember Houston-Ike after Katrina?).    Kudos to Jim Cantore of The Weather Channel for interviewing a fella who isn’t going to evacuate because he has made his home hurricane resistant (Shutters, garage door re-enforced, generator),  Not everyone needs to leave, but that is not what you are hearing.  Kudos to TWC’s Carl Parker for mentioning how small an area will receive hurricane force winds and saying the main impact outside of surge will be power outages.   


Here’s what I see at midday.   Satellite and radar loops TO ME sure indicate the eye of Matthew will stay offshore of Florida keeping them on the weaker side of the storm.  My fear is the over hype will create certain viewpoints with the locals & when the worst doesn’t happen, there will be an outcry of rage.  What I would prefer to see is the weathercasters pointing out the dangers, but emphasizing the UNCERTAINTY in the forecast.  TWC especially just puts out NHC & model information as if it is “Gospel” and WILL happen, instead of saying this MIGHT happen.    Again, MY THINKING is the brunt of the storm will stay east of Florida, and without a radical turn to the west, will make landfall somewhere near Savannah, Georgia.  That is where the real impacts will occur.


I have not fully reviewed all weather data/models, but have read some folks talking about a “Betsy loop” with Matthew coming into the Gulf for next week.   Remember, Betsy happened on Sept. 9th.  We are 4 weeks later in the season and westerly winds are forecasted over us that should protect us from any tropical troubles.   I’ll have an updated blog entry later this evening.   Until then, go to the NHC website and click on the interactive button to follow the centerline movement.  A shift to the left/west will increase Florida impacts.  A shift to the right/east will lessen FL. Impacts.  Stay tuned!

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