Tuesday, December 6, 2016

South From Alaska...Here We Come

One thing I learned from experience…in the Winter months, always check what is happening in Alaska.  Typically, IF there is super cold air over Alaska, in 10-14 days that chill will be heading southward out of Canada into the lower 48.   For the past week, temps have been 30-40 below over most of interior Alaska and now that air mass is moving southward into the northern Rockies.  It’s already below zero in northern Montana so it begs the question…”how cold will it get here?”    Most local weathercasters are just repeating NWS computer guidance that is calling for 20s on the North Shore & 30s south of Lake P.    What I’m not seeing is 1) the upper trough doesn’t deepen over us and 2)  there is no snow cover nearby.   That should mean the core of the cold should stay to our north & east and quickly exit by Saturday PM.    Since the North Shore has already been into the 20s, this new cold should be no big deal.  I don’t think the South Shore will be any colder than the mid to upper 30s.  However, there will be yet another Arctic surge coming down the following week that could be even colder.   This should mean much of the northern states will see a White Christmas.  Here?   Nah, about as likely as me shooting below 80 on the golf course.   Possible?  Sure, Likely?   NOT! 


What I miss seeing on most weathercasts is the visible satellite loop.  On a day like today, the infrared just doesn’t show the low clouds very well yet that’s what we see.   I loved to pick out features on both satellite & radar loops.  It’s a lost art.  Fortunately, we have the internet.  Stay tuned!

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