Big Events Usually Mean Bad Weather

It seems every time we have special outdoor events (New Year’s Fireworks, Mardi Gras, Jazz Fest, Zurich Golf Classic, Zoo-to –Do), weather plays a factor.   This weekend is no exception although the 1^st 2 days of Jazz Fest & Golf have been dry but windy.  Sunday could be a problem as a well-defined upper low over New Mexico begins to march towards the east.  Timing, as always, will be the key factor.  Most computer models bring some rain in during the afternoon hours and that has prompted the Golf Tourney to move up tee times to just after daybreak in an attempt to beat the rain.  Jazz Fest can’t do that.  They will play as long as lightning and strong winds are not a problem.   The best case scenario would be for the rain/squall line to slow down and not arrive until after dark.  That could happen, but remember, slowing down will mean heavier rainfall totals and NWS is still going with 2-4” area wide.  This is the first system to affect us before a stronger system arrives Wed-Thursday of next week.   Significantly cooler & drier air will follow for the second weekend of Jazz Fest. 

 

Of note, 2 of our biggest rain events happened during the first 2 weeks of May (’78 & ’95) as a cold front stalled moving through Southeast LA/MS.    Not saying that will happen here tomorrow, but pay attention to the weather.  If a “training scenario” develops, our 2-4” totals could quickly zoom up to 5-8” causing significant flooding.   Dew points are well into the 70s indicating there is plenty of moisture to work with.   My gut says the models are too fast and the main rains here will be between 8 PM Sunday and 6 AM Monday.  Regardless, let’s be ready to react if the weather turns bad.  Stay tuned!

 

Breaking news….Plant update.       Bubba still has 5 tomatoes on it with many more blossoms.  I remember reading somewhere that once the temps get 85+, blossoms won’t set fruit.  I hope not.  As for Bozo(satsuma), the strong winds have knocked off 4 of the 6 fruit on it.     Bozo is on borrowed time.  If those 2 drop, he’s history.  The lemon (Bleulah) and the grapefruit (Boudreaux) also had some fruit knocked off by the winds.  However, both trees have plenty of fruit left on them.