As you know, I am very cautious regarding severe weather threats. If you always cry wolf and the wolf never comes, the viewers will tune you out after many false alarms. I’m also aware the “wolf” did come several weeks ago in the form of an EF 3 tornado in N.O. East. So it truly is a balancing act that requires forecasting experience & skill. What I’m seeing tonight is another strong upper disturbance slowly moving out of New Mexico into west Texas. There is a strong sub-tropical jet stream racing to our south across the central Gulf with a splitting of the jet streams setting to take place right over east Texas & south Louisiana. Couple in lots of low level moisture streaming in from the southeast & you have all the ingredients for a severe weather outbreak over the deep south. Translation…we have SE surface winds, SW upper level winds providing the turning of winds with height (wind shear) & the diverging upper winds creating the “flue in the chimney” effect allowing the low level convergence to be evacuated at the higher levels. Bottom line, all of us will need to pay attention to our weather beginning Sunday afternoon into early Monday morning. Again, the best thing to do is down load the FOX 8 weather app into your phone and go to settings to turn on the alerts you want. It’s a great tool for lightning, flooding & thunderstorm/tornado warnings. We may not see damaging storms but there will be that potential. Plus, we could see some very heavy rainfall as NWS is indicating 3-6”.
Looking down the road, a fairly strong cold front will arrive for Thursday & Friday cooling us down where we’ll need sweaters and jackets again. We have been too warm for too soon in the season so this cooldown will be a welcomed change. Stay tuned, especially for Sunday night & Monday.