Monday, May 22, 2017

Back From Big Sky...

One of the big benefits of retirement is I get to travel more often.  This past weekend I visited my middle son Ryan out in Missoula, Montana for his 42nd birthday.  What a beautiful part of the USA.  I understand why he wants to live there.   Clean air, clean water & TOPOGRAPHY!  Wow, the snowcapped mountains out in the distance, the rushing streams with trout fishermen, a truly unique place in America.    Nights were in the 30s, but the days warmed into the 60s with little humidity.  I feared coming back to our heat, but what a pleasant surprise to find we were not in the 90s, heck we were not even in the 80s.  What is going on?  After getting back into the weather groove, here’s my take.  An unusually deep dip (for May) in the jet stream has carved out a trough over the central plains that covers much of the nation.  Rotating around the trough are several swirls (perturbations) of energy that help enhance rainfall.  In addition, we have a splitting of the jet stream with the subtropical jet turning out of Texas to the SE while the main jet recurves around the upper low to the NE.  That is allowing the air to rise ahead of our next disturbance that will move through overnight.   All of the weather programs I watched are echoing the NWS guidance for heavy rainfall over night.  My take is this system is progressive and, unless it stalls, rain totals should stay between 1-2” or less.   Also, radar is showing clusters of T-Storms off the upper Texas coast, but it appears to me they will stay along or south of our coast.  That would mean the heaviest moisture would be cut off from moving over us.  David just pointed that out on TV and I tend to agree.   …” a lot of people might not get much” according to David.    I don’t think conditions are right for a heavy rain event.    Let’s enjoy this unusual late May cool down.   You know that first 90 degree day is just around the corner.  

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