Monday, May 29, 2017

Gonna Rain Somewhere...

We have reached the time of the year where, if someone asks…”is it going to rain today?” , the answer can be “somewhere!”   The trigger to produce rain changes focus from fronts to more subtle features.   What do I mean?  Well, a typical summer day in New Orleans will see daily rain chances 30-40% in coverage areas.   The T-Storms usually are produced by 1) daytime heating & 2) interacting land & sea breezes.   If we have an upper high built over us, rain chances will stay “below normal/average”, say 10-20%.  If we have upper disturbances moving across, then chances will soar “above normal/average” at 60-100%.     It is a rare summer day when we see zero showers anywhere.  If that happens, it usually means heat wave.  We actually need our daily storms to keep us from being above 100.   This week starts with several upper disturbances moving through the SW upper flow.  We may see a brief break on Wed-Thursday with below normal shower chances, but the higher than normal chances return for later in the week.   It will mean you don’t need to water your lawns & gardens and our highs should stay mainly in the 80s.   Looking ahead, I expect next week to be drier and that should mean a return to the 90s.


Hurricane season starts Thursday and FOX 8 has their Hurricane Special at 6 PM.   No model shows anything happening for the next 10-14 days.  However, it’s the time of the year for fronts to stall out along the northern Gulf Coast and sometimes a weak rotation can develop along that old frontal boundary.   I’ll be “on call” for my colleagues at FOX 8 if anything should develop in the Gulf, but would prefer nothing to happen since I’m enjoying retirement.    Watch David & his team Thursday night for Weathering the Storm 2017.  Stay tuned!

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