Friday, June 16, 2017

These Guys Are Good...

Since retirement I have been playing, but more importantly, watching more golf.  The PGA has a promo that says…”these guys are good”.  In the promo are some great shot made by the best in the world at what they do.   Which got me thinking about the NHC upping the probability for a tropical storm in the Gulf early next week.  We have some of the best (if not THE best) tropical forecasters in the world at NHC and “these guys are good”.  One of them (Eric Blake) is a former local from Mandeville, which means he’s constantly keeping a close eye on any threats to us since he still has family living here.   What has been clear is the day to day consistency in the model runs that indicate something will form from the Western Caribbean/Yucatan/Southern Gulf.   As I have mentioned before, the MJO (Madden-Jullian Oscillation) is in the favorable (rising air) mode for the next 10-14 days.  It should come as no surprise if a system develops, but the real question is…where will it go?   Here’s where the models diverge.  The European brings a storm across the Yucatan into the southern Gulf making landfall south of Brownsville.  This would have little impact on us.  Other models are not as bullish on developing a system, however, where will all that tropical moisture go?    Right now we still have strong WSW wind shear over the Western Caribbean, however that is expected to relax.  In addition, this afternoon’s visible satellite loop clearly indicates low pressure starting to rotate NE of the Honduran coast.  Whatever forms, 2 scenarios are possible.   An upper trough dips into the Gulf and draws the moisture northward towards us.  A more likely scenario is the trough does not pick up the system and it stays far to our south as the European suggests.   It is still way too early to get nervous and I trust NHC to give us plenty of time IF we need to react.  Remember, “These guys are good”.


There is another system way out in the Atlantic at a very low latitude.  NHC also gives that system a good (50%) chance to develop.   It could just stay so far south that it runs into South American.  Again, nothing for us to get concerned about that far out.  Stay tuned!

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