Sunday, June 11, 2017

They're Back...

It’s taken a while, but finally typical June humidity, deep tropical moisture, returned to all of the Gulf South today.  You could feel the difference as soon as you walked out the door this morning.  Dew points are in the 70s indicating plenty of available surface  moisture,  when coupled with daytime heating, bubbled up scattered to numerous showers & T-Storms this afternoon.  In addition, there is a weak upper level low near Lake Charles that shows little movement .  We are on the “wet side” of this low so I expect another active day of storms on Monday.  NWS is calling for 60% rain chances and that is above the “normal” 30-40% of a typical June day.    Surface pressure remain high and there are no signs of any surface low pressure.   I expect once the upper low lifts out, we’ll see fewer daytime showers later this week.

 

Long range computer models continue to hint at some weak tropical development in the 10-14 day time frame.  Location varies from the western Caribbean/Yucatan Channel to the extreme southern Gulf.   This is the historical area of tropical development for June/early July so the models could be on to something.   Once again I caution, there is nothing there yet.   However, the MJO is forecasted to move into a rising air mode for the Gulf & Caribbean next week so formation is quite possible.  Until something develops that we can track, let us just pay attention as we always do at this time of the year. 

1 comment:

Suzanne Taylor said...

Thanks Bob! I always trust your opinion.