Friday, September 8, 2017

Irma Slowing Down but No Turn Yet...

One thing I learned from watching the National Hurricane Center for 40+ years is they are VERY conservative in making any major changes in their forecast track.   For the past day they have been nudging the track farther to the west with the latest now taking the center along the WEST coast of Florida.  Her forward speed has slowed to 12 mph and that may indicate she is about to make the turn to the north.   Satellite pictures (to me) are indicating Irma’s circulation will begin interacting with the northern coast of Cuba during the next 12-24 hours and that (I believe) will disrupt the circulation a little hopefully weakening her down to a Cat. 3.   NHC doesn’t believe so as they keep her a Cat. 4.  Regardless, she will stay a major hurricane.  Here’s my questions.  1) what happens if she keeps going westward into north Cuba?    2) What if she doesn’t make the turn until around 87 west longitude?   The models were in total agreement yesterday taking the center over Miami.  Now they’re all in agreement taking her towards Ft. Myers.  Could they keep shifting farther to the west tomorrow?  Maybe, but before you start thinking could this be a problem for us…remember we have a cold front that has pushed into the Gulf and westerly winds dominate the northern Gulf.  IF Irma keeps going to the west and doesn’t make the turn until tomorrow, her center/eyewall  could stay just off Florida’s west coast and then recurve back to the NE threatening Tampa Bay.  This would take the strongest winds away from the Gold Coast.  Minor changes can make huge differences.  It’s still Florida’s storm for now, but areas east of Panama City should pay attention as this westward shift could bring some impacts to them Sunday & Monday.  We’ll update again tonight. 

5 comments:

Venetian Isles said...

I'm seeing what your seeing also it's been westward all day. I think once it hits Cuba it's going to suck it more west maybe even wsw for little bit. Katrina was supposed to turn to northeast also never happened getting concerned.

Venetian Isles said...

Getting worried Bob Irma been due west all day. Waiting for that turn but don't see it. If it gets past key west and into the gulf it's going to blow up even more.

Patrick said...

Hey Bob, thanks for keeping us up to date. I've watched you as a broadcaster and have been a frequent visitor to this site for several years. I moved to central Florida, from the New Orleans metro area, about 4 months ago and continue to come to your site to follow the latest storm developments.

Could you please explain what steering currents are affecting this storm? I haven't really found anyone explaining that the way you have always done. The only one I have found on my own that would influence it's path is the cold front you have mentioned.

Are there any in place to draw it up or is it's westward movement due to it's own momentum?

Thanks for everything you do to keep us informed. I've learned a lot from watching and listening to you over the years. Even here in Florida you're still the best!

1DansBlues said...

Thanks Bob for all your updates...I have been coming to your blog waiting for your next update....call me old school, but even with all the reports on local TV, this is where I come for what really going on with the storm....In Bob I trust....just goes to show you what your experience does for me....thanks again...

Dennis Williams said...

Satellite Infrared shows cold front at Florida west line going West, Not East...All clouds are going West towards Mexico. Went to GOES EAST 12 HR LOOP. Shows it clearly....Just wondering...