Friday, September 8, 2017

Irma Throwing Models a Curve?

As I await the 10 pm update from NHC, this is wat I’m seeing tonight.  Satellite loops are showing nearly half of Irma’s circulation is now over Cuba.  Although the north side of Cuba doesn’t have any high mountains, it appears being over land is starting to disrupt & weaken the circulation a little.  The center (eye) of Irma continues to churn to the west and, perhaps slightly south of due west.  That is not what the models were forecasting.  90% of them kept Irma’s center over the Florida Straits and that was why NHC didn’t weaken her.  But what now?  What if the center stays inland over Cuba all night emerging near Havana before making the turn to the north?  Even more goofy, what if Irma doesn’t make the turn and keeps heading to the west?  Believe me, I trust the Hurricane Specialists at NHC.  Most have M.S. or PhD’s and are way smarter than me.  However, they have been brought up on the motto to obey the models until it becomes obvious that they are wrong.   I’m just telling you what I’m seeing on the satellite loop.   Frankly, the farther to the west Irma stays and the longer before she makes her turn (if she ever does) is better for Florida.  However we don’t want Irma to get to 90 west longitude before making the turn as that would extend her impact closer to us.  None of the models show that happening.   Another question…what if Irma never makes the northward turn but goes WSW across Cuba into the western Caribbean?  UNCERTAINTY.  That’s what I feel NHC & the media are not pointing out.   With the number of people at risk and models indicating the turn, you have to error on the side of caution.  This is a difficult call for emergency managers whose job is to protect lives.  It reminds me of Ivan barreling towards SE LA. Back in 2004.  Evacuations were ordered here but the storm turned at the last minute and slammed into the east side of Mobile Bay battering Gulf Shores with some incredible damage.  I really hope Irma makes the turn soon, because if she doesn’t,  many people who evacuated & have been stressed out will never do that again.  I’ll be back with my thoughts after NHC comes out with their next update within the hour.  I don’t want to go into potential impacts because there is so much UNCERTAINTY.  Stay tuned!

5 comments:

Twit MediaCritc said...

Thanks for being true to yourself and our trusted weather wizard. Good to see you are still calling it as you see it.

Miche said...

Since the NHC has had to keep adjusting west and don't seem quite sure where it's heading, do you think there's any chance this could be a problem for Louisiana?

Christopher said...

Thank you for the update. I'm in Orlando and watching closely. The more it keeps going west, the more relieved i'll be. I will stay tuned to your updates.

Donald Harris Sr said...

No chance, looks like its continuing to go towards Florida.

Larry Laneaux said...

G.O.A.T✅