Thursday, October 5, 2017

Nate Struggling Right Now...

Rather than repeat what many of you already know from NHC(National Hurricane Center), I will try to point out features that may or may not influence where Nate will go.  All models are in agreement that Nate is coming to Louisiana & Mississippi with the NHC’s center line making NOLA near the bullseye.   I will be shocked to see NHC make any major shifts in this track much like back during Katrina.  Once models locked on to Katrina’s track at 2-3 days out, it proved to be near right on.  So what’s the difference with Nate as we are 2-3 days from landfall?  1) RIGHT NOW, Nate is over Honduras and his circulation has been disrupted.  NHC pointed out their 40 mph  current intensity might be generous.  Computer models have been less accurate with weaker storms, however, it would be difficult to disagree with the cone (greatest danger) since models are in such agreement.  2) Satellite loops are showing lots of stuff around Nate.  There is strong wind shear, perhaps coming from a disturbance in the Pacific, over Nate that should limit development in the short term.   There remains a well-defined circulation both surface and aloft over the SE Gulf.  How will this effect Nate? More wind shear? Perhaps.  NHC kind of covered all bases saying Nate might be a tropical Storm at landfall, but also there could be a period of rapid intensification that might make him stronger than a Cat. 1.   As usual, there are many scenarios that could happen.  IF the center of Nate goes farther to our west (30% possibility), we’ll be on the strong/wet/windier side of the storm.  IF Nate goes farther to our east (Gulfport/Biloxi/Mobile- 20% possibility), we’d see little impact.  IF Nate stays near the centerline track (50% possibility), we’ll have to deal with high winds that will surely create some power outages and briefly heavy rainfall (3-5”) that will cause some minor flooding.   After tonight’s & Friday morning’s updates, I’ll advise you if we need to close shutters/put up plywood and get anything out of your yard that could become a projectile.   Here’s something that should make you feel better.  Currently, the management at FOX 8 has no intention of using the “little fella” during Nate, unless there is clear & present danger of a major impact threat to NOLA.  Nate should be a high end Tropical Storm(or less) or a low end Cat. 1 Hurricane.   Since his motion is projected to remain steady, flooding rainfall like with Harvey can’t happen.   Is there reason to be concerned? Certainty, but we have survived far worse storms.  Unless something happens that the models are not predicting, everyone inside the levee protection (risk reduction) system should be just fine.  Next update after 10 pm.  Stay tuned!

4 comments:

S Lad said...

Happy Birthday Bob!

1DansBlues said...

Bob thanks for the update....I was a little saddened when Bruce Katz said that what you named our next Real Cold front, he sees no cool air in sight for next week....what happened???

BSB

Donald Harris Sr said...

Would it be possible for the storm to make landfall as a category 2?

98c0cc66-83c8-11e4-a6ef-ffddff9fd9e2 said...

Thank You for the updates.