Wednesday, October 4, 2017

Special Tropical Update...

As many of you know we have a new Tropical Depression to follow. It is expected to become Nate tonight  & is way down in the extreme southern Gulf east of Nicaragua, but is projected to move into the Gulf by late Friday as a hurricane.   The American model (GFS) brings the center into Louisiana west of NOLA and that would bring some real impacts to us.  However, the European model, which has been more accurate this summer, turns this system to the NE and into the Florida panhandle meaning we would see little impacts.    Let me remind you that the computer models do NOT do well with weak or ill-defined tropical systems.  They do far better with well organized, intense storms.  TD # 16 has a well-defined low level circulation, but it lacks any inner core T-Storms.  Until it gets stronger, I suggest we don’t accept the current NHC center line track that keeps us on the weak/drier side of the storm.   NHC has started shifting their track slightly to the west and that is not what we want to see.    If that trend continues over night & into Friday, we will need to prepare for hurricane impacts here by late Saturday into Sunday.   There remains great UNCERTAINTY on this system so far out in the future.   An upper low is currently over the SE Gulf & that might add some wind shear limiting development.  However, there is a warm eddy in the Gulf north of the Yucatan (just like in Katrina) and that could add fuel to a developing hurricane.   We have a lot to watch in the next couple of model runs, but as I mentioned last night, I hope the European model is correct once again.  IF Nate were to come here, Friday would be the day to prepare your home & stock up on supplies.    I will issue 2-3 updates during the day until we know whether we have a real danger or not.  The current westward trend does have me concerned so stay tuned!

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