Monday, January 29, 2018

Models Say What???

I was at the East Jeff. Wellness Center this morning doing my workout when a lady friend (Bonnie) stopped me to ask is it really gonna snow again next week?  I asked where she heard that and she showed me a graphic on her I-Phone a friend had sent her of the latest GFS run indicating there MIGHT be some mixed precip as far south as the North Shore next week.   Could that happen?  Certainly, but the latest guidance hints at the coldest air staying to our north keeping any precipitation all rain over south LA/MS.   A couple of blogs ago I pointed out the UNCERTAINTY with the models beyond 2-3 days with the margin for error really increasing beyond 5 days.   But in this age of high tech, everyone has access to these graphics with their understanding that they are totally accurate.   That is simply not the case.     When I feel confident based on decades of experience, I’ll stick my neck out long range.   So here goes the little Fella.    Another brief surge of colder air comes in overnight making for a rather chilly (49-53) Tuesday with heavy coats needed.  Wednesday warms into the 60s with Thursday topping 70+.  This weekend gets iffy as another front will struggle to push off the coast.  The real cold will stay well to our north and east, but there could be some rainy periods for the weekend parades.   Next week looks seasonal before some really cold weather arrives for the major parades leading into Mardi Gras.  RIGHT NOW, Mardi Gras looks cold & wet with highs in the 40s!   Burrr!   That’s still 2 weeks away so lots can happen before then.  What I’ve noticed is the Arctic air over Alaska & norther Canada has modified somewhat.   Gone are the 45-50 below temps replaced by 25-30 below.  Wow, what a warm up!   It still appears an east coast trough will set up with the only question being how deep will it dig?   That will decide how far to the south the Arctic plunge will go.   Stay tuned!


I did notice the Mississippi River stage forecast going up significantly next week.  The recent January Thaw has melted much of the snow cover and, coupled with some rain, is sending a surge that should reach NOLA in about 2 weeks.  No big deal here as the river levels  remain very low.  What you will notice is that cold snow melt water will result in layers of fog hovering over the river on warmer days.  Also, we have passed the coldest time of the year, historically.  Our daily normal/averages will slowly creep higher reaching 70+ by early March.  We still have a long way to go before the Winter cold is gone for good.   If it stays like today, I can handle it. 

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