Monday, February 5, 2018

The Thrill Of Victory or the Agony of Defeat?

Back in the 70s, the ABC Network aired a show called the Wide World of Sports hosted by the late Jim McKay (McManus).  The opening showed video of people who just won a big event (The Thrill of Victory) and then this poor skier (Viko Bogataj) crashing on a downhill run (the Agony of Defeat).   Every Mardi Gras season I recall Jim’s words seeing various parade Captains basking in their great luck of dry weather versus those Captains who suffer watching their parades get rained on.   Victory vs Defeat.  Sometimes it’s an easy call as a front sweeps away all the moisture and brings clear skies, while other times a front slows or stalls allowing disturbances to keep the showers going off & on for days.  I’ve learned over the years to tell you what I know rather than what I don’t know.   So here goes for the next week+ knowing that the farther out in time we go, the higher the UNCERTAINTY of the forecast.


1)       Without an east coast dip in the jet stream, I don’t see any return of Arctic air during the next 10-14 days.  2)  Temperatures will be mild (60s) to warm (70s) with the “possibility” of an 80 on Mardi Gras!

2)      Rain chances are much more difficult to handle.  RIGHT NOW, Wednesday night’s parades should be mostly dry with the main rains coming in the 11-3 PM time frame.  A few light showers could linger into the evening, but the parades will roll.  Thursday looks dry along with Friday, although a few showers could arrive after dark.   Saturday & Sunday will have some showers possible, but it’s too far away to pinpoint the timing.   I feel there will be many dry hours along with very warm temperatures (70s).   I am not nervous yet for either the day or evening parades, although guidance is forecasting 50-60% rain chances.   Monday & Tuesday will stay warm and there will be some rain chances, but overall I don’t see any prolonged rain event, just some scattered showers that might all stay to our north & west.   We all need to start thinking “The Thrill of Victory” right through Mardi Gras!  Stay Tuned!

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