Friday, February 2, 2018

Weather Uncertainties & Parades...

Parade weather during the Mardi Gras Season always presented challenges.   Captains & Krewe members understandably want to know the weather for their parade many days in advance.  However, during my visit at Ch. 8 today, David Bernard made an interesting observation.  He said he was “uncomfortable” in giving specific rain chances beyond 48 hours.   “Precision beyond 48 hours leads to inaccuracies in the forecast”.  Translation – the UNCERTAINTY in the forecast greatly increases the farther out in time one goes so that if you believe the forecast beyond 2 days, you are likely to see a wrong prediction.   That doesn’t mean there is zero value in the longer range OUTLOOK.  It’s just the fact you shouldn’t bet the bank on something beyond 2-3 days, including a parade.    However, I know that’s what everyone wants to know so here goes.   Saturday will begin dry through midafternoon with temps rising to 60+.   The day parades will be fine.  However the evening parades have an increasing chance to get wet, especially beyond the 7-8 PM time frame.   If it were me, I’d get the evening parades started as soon as possible.   The rains overnight could be heavy (1-2”) but should be over by 9-10 AM on Sunday.  RIGHT NOW, all parades on Sunday look dry with temps in the 60s.  A weak front will cool down Monday but another front approaches with a warm up for Tuesday & Wednesday.   Rain chances go up late Tuesday evening into much of Wednesday.  As David pointed out above, trying to pinpoint the rainfall is foolish this far away.   The same goes for parades later next week.   Yes, it APPEARS another rain chance could arrive for Saturday &/or Sunday, but that’s beyond our forecasting skills.   Mardi Gras?   C’mon.  OK, here’s what today’s models show.  Temps 60s & 70s with slight chance for rain increasing after dark.   Oh, did I mention “precision lead to inaccuracies beyond 48 hours?”   Let the parades begin.  Stay tuned!

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