Saturday, March 17, 2018

Not A Washout...

Watching the local weathercasters & I see many of them using the phrase “not a washout” when the rain probabilities are 70% or higher.   What they should be saying is, “although rain chances are high, there will be many dry hours between showers.”  A classic example was Friday.   The morning forecast called for 70% chance.  I played golf with my friend Marvin and we were able to complete 18 holes in the afternoon.  However, there were far fewer golfers out than a normal Friday would see.  Why?  Could they have been scared off by the 70%?     So let’s review what probabilities mean.  #1…they have NOTHING to do with time.  If the forecast calls for 80% chance for rain, it could rain for 10 minutes and the forecast would be TECHNICALLY correct even though most of the day was dry.   What bothers me is weathercasters using 50% chance.  Really?  What does that tell you?   I never used 50% chance.  Either choose lower or higher, but give your viewers the idea that you are better than a coin flip.


We are in a weather pattern that has very fast upper disturbances racing west to east.   We have no fronts around us and it’s difficult to time these disturbances.  Our air mass is very juicy and it doesn’t take much to trigger storms.  It appears the disturbance in East Texas tonight will rumble our way for Sunday morning with the bulk of the storms staying north of Lake P.   The big Irish-Italian Parade should be OK IF the storms stay north.   We hit 81 today and should stay in that neighborhood Sunday & Monday.  A front will sweep through late Monday bringing cooler & drier air back for Tuesday through Thursday of next week.  Long range still shows no indication of any Arctic outbreaks coming and that is great news for gardeners.  We are not done seeing cold fronts, but at this time of the year it usually means pleasant temps & drier air.  Stay tuned!

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