Monday, May 28, 2018

Alberto Inland and only rain Threat...

While we had a lovely weekend, the Florida beaches had an ugly holiday.  Alberto was not a well-behaved system and did not follow the model guidance very well. After a record accurate forecasting year in 2017, NHC is off to a rough start in 2018. My guess is they are pressured to name storms too soon & that results in running computer models without having an accurate "initialization point".  That makes their initial forecasts wrong by hundreds of miles.  This is not meant to be a criticism, but rather an observation.   What was the point/need to name Alberto so soon?   I just think so many emergency managers & politicians place pressure on NHC to be better than they really can be.   I feel the pressure from viewers asking "well what do you think" when nothing has formed yet & there is nothing to track.  NHC is good, but the physics of the atmosphere will never allow them to be perfect.  I say let's give these guys a break.  Understand the forecasting error at 5 days is still like 200 miles.  If we are the bullseye that far out, more often than not the storm's main impacts will go somewhere else.   Hurricane Gustav was a recent exception.

Tonight Alberto is just a depression/rainmaker heading north into central Alabama.  We remain on the dry side of the system and will continue hot and mostly dry all week. Stay tuned!

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