Saturday, May 26, 2018

Alberto Still Struggling...

As expected, Alberto is having a difficult time getting stronger due to the hostile environment of an upper air low damp, dry air over the central  Gulf.  NHC still believes, based on model guidance, that Alberto will become a strong tropical storm before making landfall along the Florida beaches.   Their latest track continues the eastward trend AWAY from NOLA.   This never was supposed to be a major storm and all signs point to that conclusion.   However, I'm a little concerned about the upper low over the Gulf becoming cutoff and steering some of Alberto's moisture back to us later next week.  For now, the main impacts should be east of Mobile Bay and even there no major problems should happen unless Alberto were to stall.  So what should we watch for?   I expect Alberto will get stronger but only slowly since the waters over the eastern Gulf are barely marginally warm enough for tropical development.  Should Alberto drift farther to the West than NHC predicts, he still will remain well to our east.,   My only concern is not the winds and storm surge, but heavy rainfall that could wrap around Alberto for early next week.  Let's hope NHC is correct and this storm will not be our problem.  Stay tuned.

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