Saturday, May 12, 2018

Model Mania...

For the past 5 days the GFS model has been saying a storm would develop in Caribbean, Gulf or Atlantic east of Florida.  It continues to indicate that possibility tonight with the latest run bringing a system up east of Florida heading out to sea between the 20-25th.    If that doesn’t happen, what a major embarrassment for the American model.  In the shorter term, we have a weak upper low over the south central Gulf that is predicted to migrate slowly to the NE and the NW early next week.  Upper lows are hostile environments for tropical systems, but this area could bring much needed rainfall to Florida & locations to our east.   It would have little impact for us perhaps slightly increasing rain chances for Tuesday-Wednesday.


I saw the early weather this morning and noticed our dew points back 70+ indicating the muggies are back.   Daytime heating did trigger a few showers with Gonzales picking up nearly an inch.   Doing some yard work today & I noticed how hard packed the soil was due to the lack of any recent rainfall.  We are basically zero for May with only a trace of rainfall for the first 12 days.   Unless the upper low in the Gulf shifts farther to the west, I don’t see any major rain chances this week.   I have been watering daily my newly planted flowers and will probably run the sprinkler on my lawn tomorrow unless some showers develop.   Sometimes we get into rainy spells and sometimes we get into mini-droughts.   An old collogue (Jeff Baskin) used to say…”when in drought, leave it out”…referring to the forecast for any future rain.   That may be the wise forecast for this week.  We’ll see if the Gulf low can help us out.  Stay tuned!

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