Wednesday, May 23, 2018

Now The Hype Should Begin...

On Monday I mentioned the hype given to a “possible” tropical system in the Gulf was far too soon as there was nothing there yet.  Tonight we still don’t have much there, but the daylight satellite loop did show a broad surface circulation inland over the Yucatan SW of Cancun/Cozumel and NHC has now upped the chances for development to 70%.   That’s pretty hefty & should signal it’s time to pay attention.   NHC (National Hurricane Center) appears to be putting their faith in the European model as the GFS (American) model is far to the east of the Euro.  Why does that matter?   Because whatever comes out of this disturbance (90L) is likely to be asymmetric (one sided) with the bulk of the heavy rainfall over the eastern side.   Ch. 8’s VIPIR model morning run agrees with the GFS keeping much of the heavy rainfall over Florida.   So this will be a real test to see which model handles 90L better.  Impacts for the next 2 days will not come from 90L but rather the typical daytime heating type T-Storms.  IF the Euro proves correct, we should start to see increasing rain chances by Saturday with the heavier rains arriving for Sunday into Tuesday.   If VIPIR & the GFS models are correct, we’ll escape the heavy rainfall until Monday or Tuesday as they try to form an upper low over the SE and drift it westward.  All in all, the timing could not be worse as the Memorial Day weekend typically is the kick off to summer along the MS,AL, & FL. Beaches.   Even though there is high probability for some kind of development in the 3-5 day time frame, the UNCERTAINTY with the track is also very high.   As we know from past systems, staying on the weaker, drier side is very important.  Shelby Latino made 2 great looking graphics showing the impacts of the Euro vs the GFS track forecasts.   I’m sure David will show them again tonight at 9 PM when he has lots of time for weather during FOX 8’s  hour newscast.  Stay tuned!

 

Oh FYI, this afternoon’s run of the GFS has another tropical system forming over the south central Gulf in the 10-14 day time frame.   I’m sure the bloggers will be hyping that system soon.