After Friday’s downpours drenched the South Shore with 3-6+” of rain, some of today’s sunshine energy went into evaporating that moisture resulting in highs “only” in the lower 90s. There remains a weak upper low over the eastern Gulf that will begin to shift westward for early next week, but Sunday should be another day of below normal (10-20%) shower coverage before our rain chances increase by Monday. Models continue to hint at some kind of tropical system coming northward out of the Caribbean late next week and Joe Bastardi of WeatherBell Analytics says the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is in the “favorable” (rising air) phase that would support development. With the current upper low in place, it is a hostile environment for something to form. That could change by late next week IF the models can be believed. For now it appears much of the Gulf Coast & Southeast will be in for a wet Memorial Day weekend. That should result in temperatures being less hot (upper 80s) instead of the low to mid 90s.
The recent heavy rains over Florida has flip flopped them from drought to too wet in less than 2 weeks. Mr. Bastardi mentioned that there is a connection to Florida turning wet in April-May & the return of El Nino. If that were to happen by July-August, that could increase wind shear over the Gulf & Atlantic reducing the number of storms/hurricanes that might form this summer. La Nina is gone, but El Nino has yet to develop. Tropical development is way more than just having warm water temperatures. That’s what makes predicting how many storms will form so uncertain. Stay tuned!