Monday, May 21, 2018

The Hype Has Begun...

Hey I get it…it’s Memorial Day Weekend coming up & a lot of folks head to the  Florida beaches.  Computer models have been hinting that something might develop over the Gulf so there is a reason to be cautious.  However, all 3 major news stations lead their newscasts with the possibility of “tropical troubles” in 3-5 days.  Is this going a little overboard?   No wonder folks get anxious when they have to follow something that hasn’t even formed yet.   Perhaps it was a “slow” news day?  Don’t know, just don’t like making folks nervous so far in advance.   Here’s what we know.  NHC says a broad area of low pressure has formed (weak swirl with no storms around it in western Caribbean) and has a 40% chance for development during the next 5 days.   That’s based on several computer models (Canadian, Euro) that bring a system towards Louisiana.  The GFS (which for days had a similar solution) takes the bulk of a weak system into Florida leaving us alone.  However, it does wrap moisture back westward around a slow moving upper low.   RIGHT NOW, there is wind shear all over the place and any development would be slow.  Water temperatures are marginal for development.  Could a weak named storm form by this weekend?  Sure.  Will it become a Hurricane?  Unlikely since there has never been a Gulf hurricane in May.  Would some folks be asked to evacuate?  Perhaps those along the coast outside the levee protection (risk reduction) system might have to, but not the rest of us.   We need to get a grip and not get too hyped up about a storm in May.  The main threat (especially in Orleans) will once again be heavy rains that could result in flooding.   But for now it’s just something to pay attention to for the next several days, especially if you have outdoor plans for this weekend.   Mother Nature might make it a rain out?  Stay tuned!


I watched several stations and thought all the weathercasters presented the facts without hype.   It’s the idea of leading every newscast with a story that may turn out to be nothing IF the GFS model  turns out to be  correct.  Get used to it…weather will be the lead story all this week.

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