Monday, May 7, 2018

Too Hot Too Soon...

When I was younger up in NW Indiana, any north wind automatically meant cooler temperatures as the cool water temperatures (50s & 60s) of Lake Michigan would provide the chill.  Not so here as water temps in Lake Pontchartrain are above 80+ with the Gulf not far behind.   In fact, a north wind here in May & June brings drier air that heats up quickly with our higher sun angle.  I remember many years ago we had an early June front pass down into the Gulf and the resulting drier air allowed highs to soar to 100+.   We’re a little too early for that to happen, but we did tie the record high today of 91.   Somehow, with the low humidity, it didn’t seem all that bad.  Wait a few more weeks and it will.


I know many of you look at computer models so I’m sure you noticed several runs of the GFS try to develop a storm in the Gulf in the 10-14 day time frame.  1st of all, there is nothing on satellite loops that have a disturbance to follow.  2nd, the GFS often develops systems in the 10-14 day time frame that don’t happen.  3rd, there is strong westerly wind shear over the Gulf right now and 4th, Gulf water temps are below average barely able to support a tropical system.   It’s something to pay attention to especially if future model runs continue to show something trying to form.  For now, let’s just enjoy the lower humidity that allows our nights to cool down.   The North Shore was in the 50s this morning with 60s south.   What I don’t see this week is for any widespread rain chances.  That will mean gardeners will need to water their plants as the 90 degree heat will put a stress on them.  The next 3-5 days look hot & mostly dry.  Stay tuned!

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