Wednesday, June 27, 2018

2 Weeks of Record Heat...

Most models are showing a building heat wave over much of the U.S. for the 1st 2 weeks in July.   Our local NWS office indicated the center of the large upper ridge will be well to our north allowing for many easterly waves to rotate around the underside of the ridge.  That should enhance our daily shower chances keeping us less hot.  With the MJO going into the favorable (rising air) mode/phase, we should keep a watch for one of these waves for development along the northern Gulf coast during July 1-10th.  There is nothing there yet and there may never be anything there during the next 2 weeks.  It’s just something to watch for as we head into July.  None of the models have any development during the next 5-10 days.


Several channels mentioned today is the anniversary of Cat. 3 Hurricane Audrey back in 1957.  It is the only major (Cat.3+) hurricane to cross the Louisiana coast during the month of June.    July, historically, is not an active month with our main prime time coming from August 1st through October 10th.   Hurricane season is 6 months long, but in reality it’s 8-10 weeks for us in Louisiana.   There have only been 2 major hurricanes cross the LA. Coast in the 1st 10 days of October.   We(our levees) can handle the Cat. 1 & 2s.   It’s those biggies of August & September that we worry about.


Shower movement today was from the SW to the NE as the axis of the Atlantic Ridge/Bermuda High remains down over the central Gulf.    That should change later this week allowing for shower motion to be more typical basic summertime  SE to NW.  Few of the local weathercasters ever point out these subtle changes.  I loved to interpret satellite and radar loops on-air pointing out small features in the big picture.  It’s a lost art in the era of consultants & their “hour by hour”, “daily planner” & weather app mentality.   The broadcasters of today are married to the computer models rather than interpreting the reality of current satellite & radar loops.  Gone are us old time mentors replaced by consultants who believe they know what  you wants to know.    Stay tuned!

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