All of the warnings have been up, the public who wants to evacuate are gone and Florence stays the course with a landfall near Wilmington late tomorrow or on Friday morning. NHC says wind shear has weakened Florence to a strong Cat. 2 tonight, down from a Cat 4 2 days ago. That makes a huge difference in wind force. The concern remains the projected slowing down of Florence which will bring extreme rainfall over a large mountainous area. The affect from Florence for us is to build a surface high that will dry us out and block any northward movement of a rotation over the southern Gulf. There are no storms around that system tonight, but NHC is giving it a 70% chance to develop Friday into Saturday over the western Gulf. The only impact to us will be stronger winds, especially off the Louisiana coast. Way out in the Atlantic, Isaac continues to struggle with wind shear and might not survive much longer. For us, there is news that the MJO will move into the unfavorable (sinking air) phase during the next week and that should shut down the tropical activity that has made for an active September. Doesn’t mean the hurricane season is over for us, but October is only 3 weeks away. I have placed a call into the “Fat Lady” to see if she’s getting ready to do her yearly song…”turn out the lights…”
Locally, Showers were gone and winds were up. That pattern is likely to continue as Florence will waddle around the SE for several days blocking any pattern change for us. Stay tuned!