As many of you daily visitors to my site know, I have been talking about a late season tropical threat in the Gulf. Since nearly every long range computer model run today shows a Tropical Storm or Hurricane moving off the Yucatan and heading towards LA/MS, NHC this evening increased the possibility for development to 50% during the next 3-5 days. With the MJO being in the rising air phase and no old fronts coming for the next 7-10 days, the confidence in the models has increased. Bloggers are already going nuts with the various possibilities, but here’s is what I know, and it’s not much. 1) The daylight (visible) satellite loops showed a low level circulation moving onto the norther coast of Honduras. 2) The WV (Water Vapor) loops showed high upper level westerly wind shear over this system. 3) As of tonight, we have nothing to track yet since nothing has formed. I suspect nothing will form until Sunday, or whenever the upper level shear relaxes. Louisiana and Mississippi are in the bullseye for storm landfall, however that is 5-6 days away and lots can change. Currently, there is nothing that would indicate whatever forms will turn into a major hurricane. Remember Cat. 1 Hurricane Nate from last October? Our levees had no problems with that storm and I am confident , if Michael forms, he will not be an evacuation type storm. Again, the most likely timeframe, IF it comes here, is next Tuesday & Wednesday. As always, I will be updating my blog daily plus issuing additional special updates IF this system gets into the Gulf. Lots of time to watch and see. Stay tuned!
Cold air covers a good part of the nation tonight, but without a dip in the jet stream (east coast trough), that cold air can’t come our way. All signs point to a much cooler second half of October, but for the next 7-10 days we’ll stay summer-like.
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