Monday, October 8, 2018

Michael Could become Major Hurricane Before Landfall...

What has changed overnight is a slight shift back to the west (closer to us) on the centerline track.   We still remain far outside the cone of error with the western edge over Pensacola.  The centerline track, which was over Apalachicola last night has been moved back to just east of Panama City.  The 7 am longitude was 85.1 west compared to last night’s 85.4.  That means the system’s motion is almost due north and that will be important to follow during the next 2 days.   NHC’s track does bring it slightly to the NW before turning it back to the NE, but I’d rather just see that northward motion continue.  Several computer models make Michael a Cat. 3 or 4 before landfall so there will be severe impacts around the center of landfall.   As long as the track stays far to our east, we’ll see very little from Michael.   Cooler & drier air will wrap around him making for our first real Fall feeling for later this week.   If you have travel plans to our east, you need to delay them until Michael is inland.   I’ll have another update around noon.  Stay tuned!

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