Sunday, October 7, 2018

Michael Getting Stronger.

I’ve decided to post early tonight since the NHC 10 pm update should contain no surprises.  The big news from my earlier post this morning is the relocation of the center farter to the east by 75 miles.   That is great news for us as NHC keeps trending their official track farther away from us now projecting it near Apalachicola late Wednesday.   The bad news is computer models have increased intensity from a weak Cat. 1 to a strong Cat. 2 or higher.  This will be a bad system for somewhere in Florida, but little to no impacts (higher tides) for LA/MS.  Earlier Michael’s longitude was 86.9 degrees west but the 7 pm advisory placed it at 85.4 west.   It may back a little to the west on Monday before an approaching trough starts to turn it to the NE on Tuesday.  As it passes by us, our winds will shift from the ESE (bringing moist, humid air) to the NNE by late Wednesday.  That will drag down much drier (good feel) air even cooling down into the 50s N-Shore & 60s south for Friday through Sunday.  With bright sunshine and low humidity, this weekend will be the best since last April.  An even stronger surge of cooler air arrives late Sunday into next week and the “Fat Lady” has been summoned to sing here on Thursday.   It doesn’t mean our tropical threats are over.  It just means any late season systems are not the evacuation types and historically stay well to our east.  For now, Michael is not our threat, but if you plan any travel to the east Monday through Wednesday…BEWARE of Michael.  Stay tuned!

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