Friday, October 5, 2018

Mid Afternoon Update...

The visible satellite loop clearly shows a low level circulation about 80 miles north of the Honduras coastline over the open waters of the western Caribbean.  It is becoming more apparent that some kind of tropical disturbance  (Depression/Tropical Storm/Hurricane) will form over the next 2-3 days.  Hindering development( RIGHT NOW) are strong upper level westerly winds (Shear) and later tomorrow, the interaction of land (Yucatan Peninsula).   All models have some kind of development with several bringing it right over us/near the mouth of the River while others steer it farther to the east towards the Florida beaches.  That kind of uncertainty is understandable since we have nothing to track yet.  With the MJO in the favorable (rising air) phase & the very warm waters(deep oceanic heat content) of the western Caribbean as the fuel source, I can almost guarantee we’ll be tracking Michael over this weekend.  The time line hasn’t changed since yesterday (Late Tuesday into early Wednesday) having landfall along the northern Gulf coast.  Since these late season systems are usually very lopsided (eastern weighted), it will be important that we stay to the left (west) of the centerline track once NHC starts issuing advisories.  Again, nothing has formed yet, but based on models & satellite loops, it’s only a matter of time.  My next update will come later tonight .   Stayed tuned!

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