Tuesday, October 2, 2018

Will The Cold Finally Win Out?

Updating my earlier afternoon blog…NHC has slightly increased their chances for development over the western Caribbean from 20 to 30% during the next 3-5 days.  The GFS (American) afternoon model run develops a tropical system (storm/hurricane) over the western Caribbean by late Sunday into Monday and heads in into the southern Gulf for early next week.  This model takes the system (Michael?) westward towards the lower Texas coast & stalls it out.  Now for the good news, IF this model is correct, a very strong cold front will plunge down into the northern Gulf blocking any movement towards us AND finally bringing some really cool air (50s & 60s at night) to us.   These projections are still over a week away and one model run does not make a guaranteed forecast.  But I have mentioned this before…history is on our side as no major hurricane(Cat. 3+) has crossed the LA/MS coast after the first week in October.   IF Michael forms and heads towards the Gulf, we would be in the second week of October.   I like our odds that the front arrives before any tropical threat can reach us.  What I see tonight is a mid-level swirl over the central Caribbean south of Jamaica with strong upper west winds blowing any T-Storms well east of the center of rotation.  Until the upper wind shear decreases, any development should be slow to occur.


Very few showers were around today and that should be the case again on Thursday.  By Friday into the weekend, rain chances should go back up as the upper high shifts farther to the east.   We stay summer-like for most of next week with that cold front arriving (hopefully) late Thursday into Friday.  Stay tuned!

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