Bob Breck's Blog: Computer Forecast Was Right On 7 Days out.

Sometimes computer models are out to lunch having no clue on what will happen 1-2 days ahead of time. Occasionally, they can nail a forecast 3-5 days ahead of time. But rarely so they hit the bullseye 7 days out. Today was one of those exceptions as morning lows crashed after midnight and ended right where the model predicted.

For most of us south of the Lake, we didn't get to 28 or below long enough for any pipe issues.

However, there was a question on my last blog suggesting that Wind Chill can make pipes freeze even when the ACTUAL AIR temp. is above freezing. That is NOT correct. If the temperature is 33+, but the 25 mph wind makes it feel like 20 degrees, the water in the pipes cannot freeze. Wind chill does NOT affect inanimate (Metals, pipes, radiators etc) objects. Here's the facts from the National Weather Service website.

So no matter the wind chill temperature, if the actual air temp is above 32 degrees, pipes will not freeze.

Tonight is a different story as the actual air temp is supposed to reach 28 at MSY by 10 PM and stay there or below until after 7 AM. That's 9-10+ hours so I would start the water drip before you go to sleep around 10 PM.

The powerful storm that is bringing down the Arctic blast into the Gulf South has already moved north of Lake Erie. Once again TWC is over-hyping this as a "once in a generation " storm. Where we they in the great blizzard of Feb. 1978? (Oops, they didn't go on the air until '82) Or how about the great southeast blizzard of March '93? Those storms were far worse. Heck, my sister Carol up in Whiting, Indiana said she only got 3" when they were supposed to get over a foot. Hardly a generational type storm. We'll see worse storms during the next 2-3 months of Winter.

This Arctic outbreak is massive and extends way down into the Gulf. Look at how the "streamers" form as the cold air reaches the warmer warmers away from the coast.

Most of us at 4 pm are already below freezing and we have another 3 nights of dealing with the chill. However, weather often goes from one extreme to the other and the 7 day certainly confirms that.

With the waters of Lake Pontchartrain now down into the upper 40s, when the warm air returns, can you say daily dense fog? You know the drill. Finally, it was warmer in Boston (52) at 3 PM than here.