Monday, March 30, 2009

Totally Rested...More Storms Coming?

After turning my lights off for 9 hours Saturday night, I'm fully rested from last week's severe weather. However, SPC has once again placed all of South LA & MS in their "slight risk" area for severe storms late Tuesday into early Wednesday morning. The upper energy with this approaching system is much farther to our north, but we have a very strong sub-tropical jet streaking in from the Pacific that will enhance upward lift & produce some T-Storms Tuesday PM. The heaviest rainfall amounts should be focused east of New Orleans, east of GPT-BIX into Alabama & the Florida Panhandle. We really don't need more rain locally since most Northshore rivers are in flood. Fortunately, the upper flow this week remains fairly progressive so the threat for any fronts stalling on us appears remote.

Friday, March 27, 2009

Sweaters/Jackets Needed Again !!!

Sorry I don't keep up this blog more often, but being an "oldtimer", I'm just not into computers like the younger folks. The past 3 days of severe weather takes it toll on "Gramps".

Good news! It appears the brunt of the final severe weather is lifting out tonight. At midnight, most of the heavy activity is along the MS Gulf Coast with only a few scattered showers ahead of the approaching cold front. Hopefully the cold front will not trigger a line of severe storms as it sweeps thru before daybreak? Much colder air is following the front and it'll bring back sweater & jacket weather (Highs 60s, lows 40s) for Sat. PM & Sunday. If you're dressed for it, it'll feel great since the humidity will be much lower. enjoy the "good feel" air as the muggies return by Monday PM.

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Several Stormy Periods Coming...

As I watch an active line of storms along a cold front march our way, I'm hoping they lose their punch before they reach us. The upper level disturbance is pulling away to the north, but the southern jet stream is moving right over us. I expect this line to slow down and produce heavy rainfall (2-4") as it staggers thru metro New Orleans after daybreak. Another upper disturbance will pull the front back to our north on Friday before another cold front arrives early on Saturday. That front could produce another round of strong storms and that's why we're under a flood watch until Saturday morning. The weekend looks cooler & drier, but we have to go thru some rough weather to get there.

Monday, March 23, 2009

Several Stormy Periods Ahead...

I guess age (experience) mellows one when dealing with extreme weather. Rarely are severe rain events, tornado outbreaks, hurricane landfalls etc. predicted 4-5+ days in advance. My goal is to enlighten, not frighten my viewers. Having said that, it appears late Friday night into the PM hours on Saturday...all the necessary conditions will come together to produce a severe weather (tornadoes/damaging winds/large hail) outbreak across the Deep South. The questions that remain uncertain are 1) timing and 2) where goes the upper level support? It's too early to get too concerned, however, let's see if model runs show consistency during the next couple of days.

In the short term, a front will approach and stall near us on Wednesday increasing rain chances Wed. PM into Thursday. Some areas could see several inches of rainfall especially north of Lake P.

Tonight I'm getting ready to save the World this weekend by turning off my lights for an hour. In fact, I plan to keep them off for 8 hours! I don't mind "Earth Hour" IF they did it because it might reduce using Earth's resources. But noooo...they are pushing..."help us stop Global Warming". Yea, tell that to the folks in North & South Dakota tonight!

Friday, March 20, 2009

Why We Live Here...

For the first 22 years of my life, I lived in Hammond, Indiana growing up...& in Ann Arbor, Michigan getting my weather education. My 1st job took me to Tampa, Florida where I was amazed to be sitting on Indian Rocks Beach (North of Clearwater) the last week of March 1971 while my parents were still getting snow outside Chicago. Back then in my younger life, I didn't know any better. Now after being down South for nearly 40 years, I will never go back to those long winters.

This weekend is a perfect example. A cold front has brought us drier air, but we'll still be in the 70s. Contrast that to most of the Great Lakes & Northeast where it's still heavy coat weather. My late Dad could never handle our summer heat & humidity. He'd rather put on the coats. Me? I say bring on summer & the heat. We don't shovel humidity! This weekend will be pleasant, but not hot. Increasing winds will be the story perhaps causing some coastal flooding problems early next week? Get out and enjoy the outdoors. Spring has sprung!

Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Hurricane Forecast? Gotta be Kiddin' Me!

As we all know, the skill level of the folks who predict how many hurricanes will form & where they will hit is minimal. Yet they keep trying to one upmanship each other. Today AccuWeather came out with their forecast 2 weeks ahead of the Dr. Gray update due on April 1st. They(AccuWeather) say the higher chances should be up the east coast (they said that last year too) rather than into the Gulf. But their forecast is worded such that they can't be wrong no matter what happens. Is there any value here? None that I see as we must prepare for the worst as always. All these predictions due is give the insurance industry an excuse to keep the rates high for coastal locations.

Winter officially ends at 6:44 AM on Friday when the Spring Equinox occurs. A weak cold front will arrive early Friday, but the real chill will stay well north & east. There may be a severe weather outbreak some time next week across parts of the central plains & Deep South. Stay tuned.

Monday, March 16, 2009

Another Scary Headline...

You might have missed it since it was buried inside today's Times-Picayune, but there it was, another scary headline that none of us will be able to verify. Yep, more computer model forecasts for 2100, this time regarding sea level rises. No it didn't focus on us, but this time centered more on New York City & New England. Gosh, if only the models would give us a 5-10 year forecast so we could verify their skill. But noooo...it's always 50, 70, 100 years from now. I guess if they didn't scare us, they wouldn't be able to get more government funding?

Our much needed weekend rainfall has pulled to our east and the upper air steering has shifted to a much drier pattern for the next 7-10 days. Since we have now passed March 15th, it's time to plant your gardens as it's highly unlikely we'll see anymore freezes south of Lake P. In fact, it's time to start guessing when the 1st 90 degree day will occur? For Audubon Park the earliest 90 degree day happened on March 23, 1929. For Louis Armstrong International, it's 91 on April 17, 2006...but remember the Kenner Airport records only go back to 1946 while Audubon's go back to 1895.

Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Much Needed Rainfall Coming...

I can say with great confidence that it will rain across SE Louisiana & Coastal Mississippi between Friday & Sunday. The forecast problems are 1) when and 2) how much? There are several upper disturbances in the SW flow that will trigger these increased rain chances. My best guesses are Late Friday into early Saturday and then again late Saturday into early on Sunday. The heaviest will most likely stay north of Lake P. Keep up on this situation since some "training" may occur over the weekend resulting in some heavy rain totals. Dallas-Ft. Worth has received 3-4" todday and it's still raining. That's how it works here...doesn't rain for 3 weeks and then we get 3 inches in 3 hours!

Monday, March 9, 2009

Sweater Weather To Return...

3 years ago we tied the March 10th record high of 82. However, 2 weeks later, a late season Arctic outbreak bring Kenner down to 38 with Slidell hitting freezing at 32. Why do I bring that up? Because long range computer models bring a deep East Coast upper trough back next week and that could change us from record warmth to record cold. Stayed turned for updates, but don't put away the coats & sweaters just yet. What we need before we turn cold is a good widespread soaking rain and that could happen here over the weekend.

While doing my therapy for my rotator cuff surgery this morning, a fella asked me what I thought about this upcoming Hurricane Season. HURRICANES? HURRICANES? At 61+, it's difficult enough to endure 5-6 months of stress/pressure from those tropical systems. I don't even think about Hurricane Season until I attend the National Hurricane Conference in April. This year it's in Austin, Texas. Yea, I know...Austin? Austin? Go figure! Too soon to look that far ahead.

Thursday, March 5, 2009

Bravo Mr. President !!!

I have been a registered INDEPENDENT for all of my voting life. I hate the 2 party system and blame BOTH parties for our current crisis. Having said that, I thank President Obama for selecting a great, experienced Emergency Manager in Craig Fulgate to be the next Director of FEMA. Not since Pres. Clinton named James Witt to run FEMA have we had a such a qualified appointee. Bravo Mr. President!

Looking ahead I see no cold fronts coming until next Friday...highs staying around 80 with lows in the 60s. The trees & flowers should really start blooming. Get ready for allergy time!

Wednesday, March 4, 2009

Back From Da Frozen Tundra...

Losing a loved one is never easy, but to travel northward at this time of year often involves foul weather. Brenda & I touched down in Philly Monday afternoon during their biggest snowstorm (9") in over 2 years. Luckily, the worst of the storm was over as we arrived, but it's always scary landing in rain or snow. Temperatures never got above 30 degrees and this morning's low was 10 ! But the Breckster is back home just in time for a return to Spring! Yep, watched all the local weather people tonight and several said we could even reach 80 over the weekend. My oldest son in Colorado told me Denver broke their record high today at 76. That higher sun angle is working its magic and we are most likely done with freezes south of Lake P. for this season. I'll be back on-air tomorrow ready to proclaim Spring has sprung & spring ahead on your clocks this weekend as Saturday night is the time change back to Daylight Savings Time...meaning we lose an hour of sleep, but we gain daylight later in the evening as you drive home from work. I'll have a more detailed weather update tomorrow once I'm back at work.