Hurricane Season Ends...

Friday is the close of the 2012 Hurricane Season, one that will "officially" go down in the top 5 of most active seasons.  However, there were 4-6 storms that lasted less than 2 days and affected no one.  Take those away from the total and it was really about an average season.  We'll remember 2 storms (Debbie & Issac) that were in the Gulf and everyone will remember Sandy that battered New Jersey & New York.   Looking ahead to next season and I'm reading that the waters of the Tropical Atlantic are likely to again be above normal so expect the "experts" to come out with high (13-17) numbers for 2013. Personally, I'm glad it's over since we don't have to evacuate for snow or freezes.  Bring on Winter !

In the short term, there are no signs of real cold air coming during the next 10-14 days.  In fact, for the next 5 days highs will top 70 and perhaps even approach 80.  Our main weather issue will be daily morning fog problems.  I'll be working in the yard this weekend getting ready for the real chill of Dec-Feb.

December to begin Warm...Then...

A massive storm off the west coast will sweep across the country during the next 5 days bringing usually warm weather for late November into early December.  Once this system gets to the east coast, a real dump of arctic air will invade the lower 48.  Dec. 1-10 may see some much needed rain/snow fall over the big drought areas of the central plains followed by the coldest air in several years decending into the Gulf South.  It's too soon to know whether this might bring us a freeze or a snow chance, but some models are hinting that December could really turn wintry for much of the nation including us.  Stay tuned!

The Sun Will Come Out Tomorrow...

We were spoiled for 12 days in a row of sunny skies.   Then the Saint's lost and we haven't see the sun since!   But that big ball of light will be back tomorrow and it will make us all feel better.  Wednesday will start chilly and highs will struggle to get into the lower 60s.  Thursday morning will be the coldest with near freezing on the North Shore and 38-43 South Shore warming into the mid to upper 60s by the afternoon. Friday should top 70 with the warm air staying around into Tuesday of next week.  Morning fog may be a problem beginning as soon as Friday.

1st Rain in 2 Weeks...

Most of us saw our 1st rainfall since Nov. 12th with some amounts around .50", however, the majority of weather observers received less than .25".  More storms are possible along a cold front that will arrive just in time for morning drive.  This front is not as cold as the last one and we'll see a warm up beginning by Thursday PM that will last thru the weekend.  Once into next week we'll see colder fronts coming that will make us feel more Winter-like.

Have you noticed how many local channels are now using "hour by hour" forecast?  When I was in Atlanta several channels were using that phrase, ditto for Tampa 2 weeks ago.   Could it be consultants telling the local weather folks what to do?   They even break down the rain percentages down to 60% at 6 AM, 40% at noon and 30% at 3 PM.    Since FOX 8 did a story (with Nicondra Norwood) several years ago showing even the local NWS office had different ideas on..." what does 40% chance of rain mean?"  I don't use probabilities much.  Do you?    Before you answer,  rain probability is a POINT forecast.   Think about that for a minute.   If you stay at home all day, fine.  But once you leave the house and start driving around, your chances increase.  Now what do you think 40% chance of rain mean?   I know 10% means I can never be wrong!

The Cold in Retreat...For Now...

This morning brought the coldest temps. to the Northshore since last January as lows dipped into the upper 20s with wide spread frost. That cold air is on full retreat tonight as a big surge of Gulf moisture is heading our way bringing warmer temps. and more clouds along with our 1st real rain chance in 2 weeks.  Our 1st opportunity for rain happens near dawn as a warm front lifts northward with another opportunity as a cold front sweeps thru before daybreak on Tuesday.  This front is not as cold as the last one and we'll see a quick warm up back into the 70s by Friday into next weekend.  Looking into December, much of the eastern half of the U.S. will turn very cold and stormy which should mean several significant snowstorms.  I see no signs of a Gulf storm that could bring us snow...but that could change in the weeks leading up to Christmas.  Stay tuned!

Don't Sweat The Small Stuff...

On this day of Thanksgiving when our Nation stops to look around the World and appreciate all of the "stuff" most of us have, I still find too many of us getting angry/mad about the small things in life that really don't matter.  Instead we need to focus our energy on the bigger things that do matter, helping our family, helping our neighbors, giving to those less fortunate.  Every holiday I'm reminded how my family & my sons are not near me anymore.  I left my family back in Indiana many years ago for work down in the Deep South.  My sons have all moved away either for jobs or educations.  I miss those Holidays of the past, but fortunately, I have my wife for the future.  We travel now to our parents as they soon will no longer be here. Down the road we'll travel to my kids or to her brother to be near family again. What will you be doing this Thanksgiving?  I hope it's near family.

Weatherwise, we continue to be in a dry pattern that should last thru the weekend.  Cool nights and warm days until a front arrives Friday night making the weekend sunny, but cooler.  Happy Thanksgiving Gang!

Travel Day Has Few Problems...

As a kid I remember my Grandfather taking his whole family to a nice restaurant for Thanksgiving.  I remember the great food & the fun of being with my cousins, but most I remember the weather.  It often was cold & sometimes snowy.  Hey, this was in NW Indiana where it's supposed to be cold.  Tonight even up there it's not cold and certainly way too warm for any snow, which is great news for anyone traveling tomorrow.  We are day 8 with out rain and that streak should countinue into next week.  We do have a front coming Friday night, but it looks to come thru here dry.  This weekend will be a little cooler, but the real cold will arrive the 1st week in December.  So enjoy our current mild spell, spend time with family and don't assume you can always do it tomorrow as tomorrow may never come.

Dah Dah Dah Dunt...Tiger Stadium Rocks!

I was actually disappointed in the Tiger Stadium experience on Saturday because 1) Ole Miss was winning & 2) it was Daylight.  The sun set at 5:05 PM and around 5:20 PM the stadium announcer bellowed..."As it does each day, the sun has set in the west and it is now Saturday night in Tiger Stadium!"  The band struck up, the crowd went nuts and Odell Beckham JR. did the rest.  It truly became an experience in Tiger Stadium and I can understand Les Miles emotions for his team and this place.  The big house in Ann Arbor is a special place, but so is Tiger Stadium, especially at night.

The current weather pattern, if it happens next month or in January or February, will bring us a hard freeze all the way down to the Gulf Coast.  We're not quite to the time of the year when the northern states are covered in snow and the air flows southward off a snowpack.  The cool spell we've been enjoying is slowly moderating but no real warm up is coming.Our current dry spell (7 days) could last for another week with no major weather issues for this Thanksgiving week.  Enjoy it as there are signs that December will turn much colder for much of the eastern U.S in the 10-14 day time range.

Amplified Pattern Means Dry Weekend Here...

Anytime the upper air pattern becomes highly amplified (deep troughs & ridges) you often find that the surface features (fronts, highs, lows) slow down with the weather not changing much for days.  That's good if you're on the dry side of the troughs or the warm side of the ridge.   Otherwise you get stuck in a rainy 3,4-5 days like the east coast or the west coast.  All of the Gulf South should enjoy abundant sunshine with comfy cool temps into next week. Some may say it's boring, but I for one like boring!   Especially when boring comes on the weekend.

As I near my 35th anniversary with Ch. 8, I thought it's time to start my bucket list since one never knows when the end may come.   Tomorrow, thanks to Dr. Rob Muller, I will finally make it to Tiger Stadium to view LSU vs Ole Miss.  I've heard all about what an experience it is.    I'm about to find out!

Gore Be Gone...

Just when you think Al Gore (one of the 1%) has sucked enough money from the AGW movement,  He's back!   Yep, old Al's new venture is called Al Gore's Climate Reality Project and he's out to get "dirty energy" because it's changing our climate.  That sounds noble enough, except this country & the whole World runs on affordable energy.  What Al wants to do is create an agency (government) that oversees carbon credits/exchange (taxes) that would force us to drive less & use less energy.  Again, sounds noble except when Al Roker interviewed Al Gore this morning on The Weather Channel, did Mr. Roker ask Mr. Gore how would these new taxes affect our economy?   How would these new taxes create new jobs?  Worse yet, do some looking and who do you find profiting from these new carbon trading exchanges?  Yep, old Al Gore.   These guys need to do some reading from Dr. Bjorn Lomborg (COOL IT, NOT SO HOT) who, like I believe the Earth has been warming, but know all the billions that would be funneled into cutting CO2 would be far better spent feeding the Planet.   Hey Al, do you really think the guy who is trying to feed his family & has been out of work for 2-3 years really cares about their carbon footprint?  Your focus should be on JOBS. Not on try to stop Climate Change.  Your plans would hurt the poorest of the poor, but that is never brought up.  Our Climate has ALWAYS been changing.  It's called CYCLES and if we try to stop the current warming cycle and cool the Planet, the results could be far worse.  Shame on those who try to connect Hurricane Sandy with Global Warming.  Sandy would have been a non-event except a digging upper trough turned her back to the coast.  Had nothing to do with climate but with the weather pattern at that time.  It bothers me that the leader of a scientific movement is a politician and IF you have the facts  on your side, you wouldn't or shouldn't need to hire muliple PR firms to spread the "truth".  Does that bother you too?

Locally, no major changes are expected thru Sunday.  Comfy cool nights and pleasant afternoons.

Southern Weather On A Roll...

We are at a time between the heat of summer and the "brutal" cold of Dec-Feb., a time when nights are chiily, but days are pleasant, a time when a walk in the park, a trip to the Zoo or a stroll with your dog is delightful.   No Sweat, no real chill, NO HUMIDITY !!!  Life is good to be down South!

But alas, all good things will end during the next 10-14 days as another nor'easter sweeps up the east coast and delivers some real chill down to us.  That could happen Thanksgiving weekend.  Stay tuned!

In the short term, winds are staying up so chances of freezing temps are out for the North Shore.  Temps. should stop between 35-40 with 39-43 south except near Lake P.   Highs will be in the 60s Thursday thru Saturday with 70s returning Sunday into next week.  No rain in sight.

More Beasts Coming For NE....

Reading my friends Joes D'Aleo & Bastardi on WeatherBell.com tonight paint a scary picture for our friends still trying to restore normal life after Sandy in the Northeast.  More Nor'Easters are coming during the next 10-14 days meaning more flooding is likely since Sandy knocked down the dunes protecting the shoreline. More big east coast storms mean more cold fronts coming south for us.  Somehow all this early cold will be tied into weather extremes/AGW except as Joe Bastardi points out, the same almost identical pattern happened back in 1962.  Back then they called it early Winter.

Locally, Today's high of 59 was the coldest since way back on Feb. 25th.  The rest of this week will stay below normal/aveage with highs mainly in the 60s & nights in the 30s & 40s.  Tomorrow night will be colder as we have clouds moving over us tonight keeping temps. from falling much.  No rain is in sight until next Tuesday at the soonest. 

80 & 90 Years Young! Happy B-Days...

This weekend I was off to Tampa to surprise my 1st boss, Roy Leep.  Roy gave me the opportunity to get into television in 1971 after 33 other stations rejected me. He was a pioneer in TV weather broadcasting & allowed me to learn & train with equipment no other TV station had.  I owe my success to many, but it began with `Roy Leep. Happy 80th Roy!   Not to be outdone, I got off the plane Sunday evening and headed to Lem McCoy's 90th B-Day party.  Lem is a retired well known local architect who's  in his 9th decade and still going strong!  I feel like a youngster at age 65!

I returned to quite a weather change as highs struggled to pass 60 after being 80 yesterday.  This will be a chilly week with highs staying in the 60s and nights in the 30s & 40s.  If you're dressed for it, it'll feel great!

Severe Potential Late Sunday-Early Monday...

Our main severe weather season happens late Winter into early Spring (Feb-April).  Many don't know we have a sceondary season late Fall into early Winter (Nov-Dec) when cold fronts get stronger.  Such a front is coming early on Monday.  Ahead of it will be warm (80+) moist air from the Gulf colliding with the colder air triggering a possible line of severe storms late Sunday night into early on Monday.  It's a little far out to pinpoint timing, but right now it appears the worst will come during the overnight hours on Monday morning.  Hopefully many of you have purchased our Midland severe weather alert radios to keep you safe during these episodes.  In the short term, we'll be much warmer, especially at night, and mostly dry Sat-Sunday with brisk south winds.   We might see some dense fog at times if winds relax, but I'm expecting just a low cloud deck over night & into the early morning hours.   The cold air behind this next front looks to be much like the last...60s during the day, 30s & 40s at night.  Enjoy your weekend!

The Folly Of Naming Winter Storms...

When I started in broadcasting back in 1971, my boss who was the legend of Tampa Bay(like Nash was here) use to bring his dog, Scud on to the set with his viewers sending in cute outfits for Scud to wear in the colder months.  When I moved to Dayton in 1973, the guy I replaced did the weather live outside (believe he was the 1st in the nation but others quickly followed) nomatter how wet, snowy or cold.  A fella in Milwaukee used a puppet to deliver the forecast and who can forget Sonny Elliot in Detroit or Tex Antoine with Uncle Wethbee or P.J. Hoff in Chicago with his Vice Pres. of looking out the window.  What did they have in common?   A gimmick, something different to try to get people to watch.

So let's get to The Weather Channel's naming Winter storms.  Why?   They try an explain that it will make people pay more attention.  Huh?   Who's next?  AccuWeather naming storms?   We now have Brutus...some one will have a Babe or Bubba or a Breck!   There is a reason the National Hurricane Center names storms since we've seen 4 or 5 systems going on at once.  There is a reason the National Weather Service is the official body that issues warnings.   What TWC is doing is creating a gimmick, an effort that they hope will  get more viewers to watch them.  My fear?  It will create more confusion, worse yet it may create a cry wolf syndrome.   My opinion...a stupid idea.  What say you?

Locally, we're going into a warmer weekend ahead of our next front on Monday.  Highs will be back 80+.

North to Alaska...Burrrr !!!

The North American snow pack is increasing as the daylight decreases in our Hemisphere.  I always check on the Temps in Alaska once we get into the Fall/Winter seasons.  Last year Alaska was very cold & snowy, but we seldom had an east coast trough to bring that air into the lower 48.  Hence last winter was the year without a winter.  It appears this winter will be different as east coast troughs keep coming.  Does that means snow for us?  Perhaps, but more likely it means we'll see several moderate to hard freezes in Dec-Feb. time frame.   Stay tuned!

The major weather news is the Nor'Easter that is following right behind last week's Hurricane Sandy.  1st you're battered with a storm surge, now you're covered with a wet snow.  Not sure who said it..." life is not fair" but those in the Northeast near the coast know the truth of that saying.  We feel for them because we have been there many times in the past 15-20 years.

Severe Weather Here Next Monday ?

We have reached the time of the year when our secondary severe weather season begins.  The Fall is the time of the year when strong cold fronts collide with warmer air off the Gulf.   It usually isn't as active as the Spring season, but can and has produced some small tornadoes over SE LA & coastal MS.  Looking ahead, our current cool spell will last another 3 days before a warming trend begins Friday PM.  We'll be back 80+ over the weekend before a strong upper air system coupled with a significant cold front sweeps across the South on Monday.   That's still many days out so trying to pinpoint the timing (morning, afternoon or evening ) is way too early.   This system will bring much needed rainfall to the drought areas of the central plains along with a widespread potential for severe storms.  Stay tuned!

In the short term, you'll need sweaters and jackets as nights will dip into the 30s North Shore and 40s South Shore, with daytime highs 65-70.  Enjoy !

Get Ready Northeast, More Misery Coming.

Amazing how Mother Nature works.  Seems it's too much or too little & rarely just right.  Tonight most models are predicting another major storm will hit the Northeast where power is still not fully restored since Hurricane Sandy.   This system will not have the surge of Sandy, but it'll have more cold air & heavy snow.  Once again, widespread air travel delays can be expected along with more power outages beginning Wednesday continuing into Friday.  Beware if you have travel plans to the Northeast from D.C. to Boston.

Locally, Colder air is coming for the next 3 days, but if you're dressed for it, it'll be that great Fall feeling

The Blame Game Continues...

Today's Times-Picayune editorial headlined...SURGE MUST BE PART OF WARNING.  They go on to blame NHC & the local offices of NWS because the Times-Pic believes NWS "didn't covey the serious risk of surge in a way people could understand". !!!   Are you kidding me?   Again we have folks taking PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY away from the "victims" and placing it on the message & messenger.  I remember during Katrina NWS came out with this warning 2 days before she struck.
..."there will be parts of SE Louisiana & coastal Mississippi that will be un-inhabitable for weeks, perhaps months after this storm."  How clearer can the message be?  Yet we lost nearly 2,000 people & countless others had to be rescued from rooftops.  I remember during Isaac FOX 8 had very clear graphics showing storm surges of 5-8 feet in Lake Pontchartain & 8-12 feet at Braithwaite.  Yet some people stayed who were outside the levee protection system(risk reduction).   Initially I thought The Weather Channel, NHC & the local NWS offices were over hyping Hurricane Sandy.  Turns out they were correct, but people just don't want to listen.  I go back to my question..."How can we be responsible for the ir-responsible?"   So far no one has given me an answer.

Today's heavy rains were welcomed since it hadn't rained in 2 weeks.  Get ready for some chilly air to arrive Tuesday & Wednesday before we see a late week warm up.

"We Didn't Know It would be That Bad!!!"

Wow...couldn't believe my ears today.  We all feel for the misery the folks are going thru because of Hurricane Sandy, but despite all the hype & warnings from NHC,NWS & the media, some people are still saying they didn't think it would be that bad.   My friend Bryan Norcross with The Weather Channel believes NHC should have issued Hurricane Watches and then Warnings since they carry more weight with viewers.  Perhaps, but my take from going thru these things for 40+ years is it's not the message or messenger that should be blamed. Rather, it's a percentage of people who will NEVER believe something that bad can happen to them.    In this case, it was the lack of experience or exposure to hurricanes along the New Jersey & NY coasts that led to this false sense of security.  You keep hearing..."I've lived here all my life, never seen this..."  or " If I knew it would be this bad, I would have left."  or  " Why is the power out for so long?"   Those of us who have been thru many hurricanes know the answer to these statements/questions.  Hurricanes, like climate, go thru CYCLES.  The 40s,50s & 60s brought lots of hurricane activity to the east coast.  Most of those folks have since died with several generations since having no real hurricane experience  In addition, None of those storms had a track like Sandy.  The folks now suffering from Sandy shouldn't blame any bad forecasts or warnings (Forecasts/warnings issued days in advance), rather they should vent their anger on local politicians who for years have ignored all the research reports that said NYC was at great risks if a hurricane approached and made landfall to their south.  Let's stop the blame game and focus on solutions to prevent further losses in the coming years. 

Another East Coast Storm Next Week?

It seems Mother Nature often likes to repeat herself.  I recall back in 1967 Chicago was burried under 20-25" of snow that shut down the city.  The following weekend another snowstorm hit dumping 10-12".  In more recent times, Tropical Storm Isadore was followed shortly by Hurricane Lili.   Hurricane Katrina was followed 3 weeks later by Hurricane Rita.  Now it appears that another east coast storm is likely next week (Tues-Wed) following Hurricane Sandy.   Seeing the sad pictures of destruction all along the Jersey Shore tonight makes me leery that they don't need another big storm while many are still without power.  It's like the bully that 1st knocks you down and then kicks sand in your face.  Pay attention if your travel plans include the east coast for early next week.  Another Nor'Easter/Snowstorm may be coming?  Stay tuned!

Locally, Summer-like temps(85-88) are coming back for the next couple of days.  A cold front will arrive by Sunday PM with a few showers.  A stronger push of cold air will arrive late Monday night.  Not sure we'll see much rain, but we've been dry at FOX 8 for 13 straight days.  We need some rain.