Storms Coming...Some Relief From Heat

This is my 36th summer in New Orleans and I remember  usually by mid June, fronts stop coming this far south.   Oh, a handful of years a weak front pushed off our coast, but typically not very far.  If the computer models are right (aren't they always!), the coming East Coast upper trough will be deep enough to push the front well down off our coast.   Which reminds me of August 1983 when an unusual front pushed off our coast by about 150 miles.  It sat there for several days when an area of low pressure started to develop.  luckily for us this low was steered westward by a building Atlantic Ridge.  It rapidly developed into a Cat. 3 Hurricane (Alicia) battering downtown Houston.    No I'm not saying that will happen with this front, but we should pay attention to the Gulf this weekend.  One thing for sure, our rain coverage will increase with the slight potential for strong/severe storms late Friday into Midday on Saturday.  Slightly drier air will filter in behind this front making for a mostly dry Sunday.   With more clouds and rain around, highs should be less hot for a couple of days.

Someone Is Lying...The Science is NOT Clear

I've been trying to digest the President's speech on Global Warming/Climate Change/Weather Extremes from yesterday and Jeff Master's (Weatherunderground/Weather Channel) blog today saying we all gonna die and have reached the conclusion that many are exaggerating the "facts" & manipulating the data to promote their cause. Someone might call it "lying", but I like Jack Nicholson's  "YOU CAN'T HANDLE THE TRUTH" as to what is happening.  So much misinformation... "the climate is changing"...the climate has ALWAYS been changing since the beginning of the Planet.  "Global warming caused by greenhouse gases"...partly true, but they are not the DRIVER of climate change.   If Man's use of fossil fuels is the DRIVER of our recent warming trend,  what caused the warming years ago before cars, factories & Man himself?   "Arctic ice keeps melting"...that has happened before during the last 100 years.   "Warming will continue forever..."   It already has started a cooldown that has NOT been predicted by computer models. When the TRUTH (actual data) shows that the Globe is not warming, Alarmist start attacking the credibility of the opposition( President Obama comparing us to "flatliners") rather than defending the data.   I have said many times in the past Ocean Currents are the DRIVER of Climate Change.  Check the past (not inaccurate computer models) to foretell the future.   The nation needs JOBS.   Taxing fossil fuels will not create more jobs.  It will increase everyone's living costs driving more into poverty.   IF The Weather Channel was not pushing a Global Warming Agenda, they would hold an hour debate with educated leaders (no politicians) from both sides discussing the ISSUES.   To go on calling the opposition names solves/settles NOTHING.

Another deep East Coast trough will bring a front on trhu over this weekend.  We'll see increased shower chances beginning Friday & continuing into next week.  As I said yesterday, any front that moves over the Gulf during the Summer bears watching.  Stay tuned!

Stormy Weekend Coming?

Even though we had below normal (10-20%) rain coverage today, the few spots under the slow movers received 2-3" in less than 2 hours.  Go a couple of blocks either side of the storms and you only heard thunder.  That's Summer in the South.  Storms build 7-8  miles up in the atmosphere yet can be only 5-10 miles wide.   I expect that pattern to continue for the next 2 days.  However, changes are coming for the weekend as another unusually strong east coast trough will bring a cool front close late Friday into Saturday stalling out along the Gulf Coast.  That should increase our daily shower chances back above normal (40-50%) thru early next week.  Sometimes a weak front can drop off our coast and low pressure forms enhancing tropical rainfall.  We need to be paying attention to the Gulf next week as the MJO goes favorable.  Stay tuned!

MJO Going Favorable...Chantal coming early July?

By this time last Summer we already had 4 named storms.  So far in 2013 we have two and will likely stay that way for another 7-10 days.  However, the Madden-Jullian Oscillation (MJO) which is favorable over the eastern Pacific, will shift to favorable over the southern Gulf & western Caribbean next week.  Since I believe the MJO is the main driver of Tropical development (Cosme will soon be Hurricane in East-Pac), look for things to pick up in our part of the world once we get into July.   Nothing is on the immediate horizon, but we will be going into the July 4th holiday weekend & most folks will be thinking vacation and not hurricanes.  Stay tuned!

In the short term, I think we'll see below normal (10-20%) shower chnaces the next 2-3 days before we go back into higher rain chances over the weekend.   We're hot for the next 3 months with only these spotty showers bringing us temporary relief.

Barry Forms but No Threat to Northern Gulf

TD 2 was upgrade to Trop. Storm Barry this afternoon after an AF Hurricane Hunter plane found wind speeds of 40+ mph.   Fortunately this storm will not impact the U.S. but it'll be a big rainmaker for much of Mexico around Vera Cruz.    A weak frontal boudary moved over us today with lots of clouds keeping temps below 90 for the 1st time in 8 days.  Rain coverage was only about 30% but a few folks got drenched.  A huge well defined waterspout  developed just north of Grand Isle this afternoon.  It made landfall on the western end of the island & caused minor damage to several roofs.  Summer waterspouts are common along the Louisiana coast, but the size & definition of this one was rare.  With everyone having cell phones with cameras now, numerous pictures were taken.   Looking ahead...Thursday should see some spotty T-Storms develop before an upper ridge moves in for Friday thru Sunday drying us out and heating us up.  Summer officially begins at 12:04 AM Friday morning.

Stormy Wednesday? Less Hot

Here we are into the 3rd week of June and we have yet another weak front sagging into the deep South.  Fronts don't bring any cool air, but they do increase our rain chances and that should make us less hot on Wednesday.  I expect the front to quickly dissipate by Thursday lowering shower chances again for the 1st part of this weekend.  That should return highs back into the low to mid 90s...typical June heat for us.

Trop. Depression # 2 has moved into the extreme southern Gulf and satellite loops look like it is becoming better organized.   NHC is giving it a 40% chance of becoming Trop. Storm Barry tomorrow.  It will make its second landfall in Mexico early on Thursday.  No other storm formation is expected thru the weekend.  

Good Bye Old Friend...

Those of you who have seen clips of my early years at Ch. 8 know I was a "dapper" dresser.  All right, maybe gaudy with wild plaids was a better description.  That all changed in 1985 when I met a fella named Don Noel.  Don was the General Manager of Porter-Stevens at Lakeside Shopping Center and claimed he could make me look more "professional".  Oh did he ever as for nearly 20 years the clothes I wore on TV were picked out and fitted by my friend Donnie.  Gone were the plaids & lapels wide enough to land a small airplane.  No more double breasted suits or sportcoats. (Don said those made me look shorter!)  In were color coordinated shirts & ties that made me a snappy dresser.  Don labeled my ties & suits with letters & numbers so I would know what went with what.  I was clueless, but Don made me look great.   We were also golfing buddies for the last 16 years...maybe not good at golf but good for each other.  He and I were like brothers and it was with a heavy heart that I said goodbye to Don on Saturday.  I will cherish all the great times we had.  Good bye Donnie...my dear friend.

Not that it matters, but TD # 2 has moved inland over Belize and will not threaten the northern Gulf.  The next 7-10+ days should stay quiet over the Tropics, but the MJO will head into the favorable(rising air) mode by the 1st week in July.   Look to see some development in the 10-14 day time frame hopefully after the July 4th holiday weekend.  Stay tuned!

Tropics Quiet...Rare June Front?

There is so much wind shear across the Gulf, Caribbean & Tropical Atlantic that we should not see tropical development during the next 7-10 days.  As I've mentioned earlier, the MJO is unfavorable so we're likely to end June with only one named storm (Andrea).  Last year we had 4 named storms by the end of June.  We would love to see this pattern of east coast troughs continue thru hurricane season.

Today saw typical June heat ( 92 makes it hottest of year so far) but there were ZERO showers around Metro N.O.   On a "normal" June afternoon we see rain coverage of 30-40%.  A weak front will stagger near us for Friday increasing our rain chances, but only for one day as the front will dissipate by Saturday. We no longer see cool air with these fronts but any showers will help curb our daily heat. 

Extreme, Extreme, Extreme...

FOX News calls it EXTREME WEATHER. Others call it EXTREME HEAT, or EXTREME FIRES or EXTREME STORMS.  Did you ever wonder what's going on here?   Why all the hype? Well it goes back to one of my former News Directors saying..."never let facts get in the way of a good story!"  No fooling, I can't make this stuff up.    If the media says it's EXTREME, it must be EXTREME.  But is there an agenda going on there?   Could it be the PR companies feeding the news sources so much doom & gloom that the public starts to believe we need to act and do something?   Doesn't matter that we can't stop the Earth's on going Changing Climate, but won't it make you feel good that you're doing something?  That's what this is all about...create fear so folks will buy into higher taxes and lower standards of living.  Guilt...shame on you for being successful and using so many resources.

The GFS keeps trying to form something in the Gulf in the 12-14 day range, however the MJO will still be in the unfavorable (sinking air) mode.   My thoughts are we'll stay quiet for the rest of June and see tropical activity pick up again in July.  In the short term, Thursday will be hot & mostly dry with a weak front increasing our shower chances for Friday & Saturday.

Heating up...Finally

Just as the Alarmists keep cranking up their fears regarding Climate change, the REALITY of weather data keeps showing up.  Comparing our last 3 Junes, one finds a DECREASING trend regarding highs of 90+.  In fact, most of the U.S. east of the Mississippi has enjoyed a really cool Spring.  But you never hear that.  Nope, it's more of the same..."now that climate change is inevitable..."   Huh?   Climate Change has NEVER stopped.  It's ALWAYS changing, but don't tell that to the Mayor of NYC or the thousands of scientists dependent on more government funding to study future climates.  Do you really think money doesn't sway scientists?   Or politicians?   Do they not know the past history of what drives climate change? (PDO,AMO etc)  What they do know is putting fear into the electorate gets them to vote higher taxes on themselves.  It would be far better to funnel the billions alarmists want to collect in carbon taxes into feeding the hungry on this Planet.  Climate Change is NOT the greatest threat to the human race.  Feeding the poor & unfortunate should be priority one.

But less I digress, Our local weather has finally cranked into the 90s...about 3 weeks behind schedule.  We look to stay into the 90s as an upper ridge caps T-Storm chances, but this is not record heat like back in June 2011.  The Weather Channel began talking about the MJO shifting back to a more favorable (rising motion) tropical pattern by later this month.   First time I'm seeing them admit the importance of the MJO.  Kind of stupid to talk about things 2-3 weeks in advance, especially in the Tropics.  All I'll say is the next 7-10 days look to remain quiet.

Tropics Gone To Sleep...

Andrea may have been the 1st named storm of the season and she certainly won't be the last.  However, if you believe it's more than water temperatures that drive tropical development, then Andrea could be the ONLY storm in June.  Why?    I believe the MJO (Madden-Jullian Oscillation) drives tropical development and it has shifted back to unfavorable (sinking motion) for the next 2-3 weeks.  In fact, models keep bringing back East Coast troughs that will keep the unusually cool Spring over the eastern U.S. going into Summer.   East coast troughs typically curve tropical systems away from the mainland BEFORE they hit Florida.  Once a pattern is set up, it can last many months.  Unfortunately, the Hurricane Season lasts for many months more, but let's enjoy the quiet while it lasts.


Locally, it appears our 1st REAL heat wave is coming as an upper ridge will build over us capping any daytime heating showers.  Here's a neat fact.   Temperature comparison for 90+ degree days year to date...
2013 - 2,    2012 - 15,   2011 - 21  !!!   Add Atlanta to the cool cities as they have yet to reach 90.  In an era where almost every day we read about alarmist's future predictions ( NYC is gonna drown), very little is ever said about the REALITY of our atmosphere cooling down.   Then again, that would go against the models that predict warming forever.   Never let facts get in the way of a good story!

Andrea Forms in Gulf...

AF Hurricane Hunters found a closed circulation along with a small area of 40+ gusts this afternoon so NHC named it Andrea.  There is so much dry air & west wind shear around this system that I will not be surprised to see it down graded to a depression before landfall late Thursday.   There is ZERO threat to LA/MS as this system will accelerate to the NE during the day tomorrow and end up east of Boston by Saturday.   Wave heights have been decreasing tonight telling me winds are NOT increasing.  It's easy to second guess, but this appears to be another one of those weak storms that jack up the total numbers for the seasonal forecasts.  I'm thankful it's Tampa Bay's turn to stay on-air all night watching this storm.

As Andrea quickly moves away, we'll see some daytime heating storms Thursday & Friday with fewer showers for Saturday & Sunday.  In fact, computer models are indicating the 1st real heat wave of this summer is coming for late next week.  Get ready for mid-upper 90s...Yikes!

T.D. in Gulf?

Hard to find any low level swirls on tonight's IR loops, however, one buoy over the eastern Gulf has winds nearly 30 knots so my gut tells me NHC will likely say TD 1 forms in Gulf during the day on Wednesday.  Strong west upper winds still protect us and whatever forms could be more of a non-tropical low as it gets picked up ahead of another digging east coast trough.  Bottom line for us...little impact except higher winds and tides 1-2 feet above normal.  No big deal.   The real heavy rains stay well east of the Florida beaches for this weekend.

Andrea Forming in Extreme Southern Gulf?

Daylight satellite pictures revealed a large broad circulation just north of the Yucatan this afternoon & NHC has scheduled the Hurricane Hunters to investigate it Tuesday PM if it continues to develop.  The IR pictures tonight show several swirls.  One is just off the western tip of Cuba (mid level) while the low level swirl still appears just north of the Yucatan.   Will it become Andrea?    My take is yes...eventually.  There is a lot of westerly upper winds over the central & northern Gulf so IF Andrea forms, she would be steered to Florida well to our east keeping us on the dry side.    Another east coast trough is predicted to develop so this rain system will be steered up the east coast to New England.  For us, some drier air will filter in behind it resulting is slightly cooler night time lows for Friday & Saturday mornings.   Officially at the airport in Kenner, we have yet to reach 90 degrees.   Same time one year ago we already had reached 90 TWELVE times !!!   My how weather patterns change.  Duh !

In the Name of Science???

Been on vacation watching CNN & The Weather Channel trying to justify tornado chasing in light of the 3 chasers killed this past week.  Here's my take...originally chasing was a good thing and still is to some extent.  It gives great real time video to forecasters watching dual Doppler radars helping in the warning process.   However, seeing the frame of the El Reno tornado on the Weather Channel showing 50-60 chaser vehicles within 5 miles of the storm, it's no wonder people were killed, experienced people at that.  Reminds me of the Hokie commercial on TV saying "everyone and their Grandma is now into lifting houses".    It appears that's what it's like with storm chasers. Some are experienced while others are just seeking that adrenaline rush and paycheck for getting up close video.  Same thing during hurricane coverage.  Someone is going to get hit and killed by flying debris live on air.  Is it really Science?  I think it's more about ratings and TV.  What say you?