More On National Hurricane Conference...

One of the topics at the conference was a recap of Hurricane Harvey.  Not only was it a major hurricane at landfall, but it became the most prolific rainmaker(40-50”+) afterwards that killed 65 people.   Can you imagine what would happen here if we had that kind of rainfall with the current limited pumping capacity in Orleans Parish?   Yikes!  In fact, if that kind of rainfall happens anywhere, there will be major flooding.  Our situation is different because we must pump all rain water back up over the levees that protect us.   Let’s hope that doesn’t happen in our life time.   Did you know…if you are 70+, you are 8 times more likely to die during a hurricane?  Why?  The seniors like me have less mobility and are more likely to have cardiovascular issues.  One surprising statistic was this…INDIRECT deaths (heart attacks, car accidents, home accidents) are 20 times more likely than DIRECT deaths due to storm surge, wind debris, falling trees etc).  In other words, once the hurricane is gone, the dangers don’t end.  As we get closer to June 1^st, I’ll go into greater details regarding the decisions you’ll have to make IF a major storm threatens us.

 

Easter Sunday looks to be another near perfect day.  In fact, we should enjoy Spring-like weather through late Tuesday before our next front arrives.  As I mentioned last night, we are not done with cold fronts as computer models are keeping the cold air train going well past mid-April.  For folks up north, this means late season snows.  For us, it just means some chilly nights with comfy cool days.  That should mean our cool season annuals may last longer this year.  All my flowers are blooming like on steroids as they prosper with the longer sunny days and the nice cool nights.  I also noticed birds are on the prowl building nests in my bird houses after no action for many weeks.  I’ve decided to dig up the roots on my shrimp plants as they show no life.  One hibiscus is sprouting but the other 3 perished to the freeze.   My grapefruit has some fruit, but not nearly the 300 of last year.  Sadly my satsuma doesn’t appear to have any fruit…again.  This is year 4 and I’ll probably take it out since I’m not a doctor.  I have no patients, or is that patience?   Stayed tuned!

National Huricane Conference...

Just returned from the annual National Hurricane Conference held this year in Orlando.  I’ve been going to this conference for over 30 years and was pleased to see over 1700 folks registered.  However, the number of broadcasters might have been 25 with 15 of those from Florida.  Compare that to 20 years ago when over 100 broadcasters along with their station’s live trucks beamed video back to their home markets.  It’s discouraging to see the lack of interest from the broadcast community since, after all, they are the ones to relay the info from NHC to you.   I always wanted to know the forecasters at NHC plus I felt a personal relationship with the Director would benefit me/you IF a storm came our way.   It’s a different breed of broadcasters now and I can’t see how that is for the better.  Kudos to all the emergency managers attending since they are the ones who have to order/carry out evacuations.  They feel it’s important to keep getting continuing education, and so do I.   I remain a hurricane consultant to Ch. 8 for the 2018 season and will never feel like I know everything.  David Bernard joined me and I feel we have the most knowledgeable & experienced team in New Orleans and we will continue to work hard to earn your trust.

 

Here are some tidbits from the conference.   The 2017 season was a stellar one for NHC as their track error for all 17 storms was the lowest ever.  Back in the 70s, the average track error at 72 hours out (3 days) was 300+ miles, but in 2017 the average error was only 80 miles.  Granted, most of the storms were well behaved with Lee being the exception.  That reduction in track error means less coastline has to be evacuated.   Another startling statistic is of those 17 storms, 3 were Cat. 4s within a 26 day period.   How unusual  was that?  Well, consider the previous 56 years  had only 3 Cat. 4s combined!  2017 was the 7^th most active season ever so it’s no wonder that many of the preseason  forecasts are calling for fewer storms closer to the long term averages of 12 storms, 6 being hurricanes and 3 major.   I’ll have more tidbits during the coming days.

 

We flew back over yesterday’s storms making for a bumpy ride at times.   Our weather for this Easter weekend couldn’t be much better with cool nights and warm, sunny days.  Long term model guidance continues to indicate more cold fronts will be coming well into mid-April.   For folks farther north, that might mean more snow storms.  For us, it just means don’t put away all your sweaters just yet.   Stay tuned!

Classic Cold Air East Coast Wedge...

We almost tied another record (84) high today stopping a degree short at 83.   Not that far to our east, it was much cooler as a deep low is stalled just off the east coast dragging down very chilly air down the eastern slopes of the Appalachians all the way into northern Florida.   Highs barely got above 50 in Charleston, Savannah & Atlanta while the NW Florida beaches stayed in the 60s.  It’s called the cold air wedge and you could even see the line of clouds on the visible loop push westward almost reaching us.   That cold air will retreat for the rest of this week as we await our next front arriving here on Thursday.  This will be a slow moving front allowing training of storms that could produce 3-6”+ rainfall mainly to our north & west.   Our best chance for rain appears to be Thursday into early on Friday.   Cooler (not colder) & drier air will follow for Thursday & Friday with a warm up returning for the weekend.  Easter Sunday looks sunny & warm with highs 80+.   The Crescent City Classic will have near perfect conditions on Saturday morning too.   Winter is not over for the northern states as another big surge of cold air is predicted for the first week of April.   We are done with any freeze threat and I’ll probably begin putting away my sweaters next week.  Major League baseball kicks off next week and many games will be very chilly.  That is not unusual for early April as I remember many years the Cubs game was cancelled because of…SNOW!   As Ernie Banks would say…”Let’s play two!”   Stay tuned!

Spring Has Arrived Across the South...

Today’s high was a record tying 84 and my yard is really responding to the warmer temps & longer days.   My annuals are doing great and my grass has no weeds since I used Bonus S twice on it…once in February & again last week.   Hard to believe we had such a cold December & January , but several of my plants still show zero signs of growth.  I have a flowering yellow bush  whose flowers resemble trumpets that is just now coming out around the base.  This plant had been beautiful for the past 4 years and has grown to 5+ feet.  However,, it appears I’ll have to whack & shack it back down to around a foot as most of the bush is dead.   My shrimp plants also look to be toast, but one out of 3 hibiscus plants is sprouting from the base.  The other 2 are bye ya.   I am trying some hanging baskets around my back yard and they are really looking great.  These is something to say about having colors in your yard.  I find it very relaxing & satisfying.

 

With the big help from my son (Justin) I was able to complete my back fence this weekend.  Putting up the boards are a piece of cake.  Putting up a gate is best left for professional as we struggled, but succeeded in completing the project.  When I was working I could never find the time to piddle around the yard.   Being retired allows me the opportunity to enjoy working with Mother Earth & I love it!

 

Even though we will be warm for most of this week, we are not done seeing cold fronts.  The folks up north will be really depressed as we get into April as the long range models continue the cold for the Great Lakes & Northeast.  With the higher sun angle, the fronts will be more drier fronts sweeping away humidity with daytime highs comfortably in the 60s & 70s.    We have about another 4-6 weeks of really nice weather before our long , nasty summer begins in early May.   Get out and enjoy before the heat goes on.  Stay tuned!

It Happens every Spring...

For many across our country, springtime means a return of baseball, ball parks, bratwurst & beer.  Since we don’t have a team here, college baseball is King.  But there are some of us in SE LA/MS where Spring means it’s time to fish again.   Usually early April is the time trout follow the shrimp and begin showing up in greater numbers.  However, my youngest son (Justin) had some time off and wanted to do some fishing after driving in from Oklahoma City.  So one call to Capt. Hylton and we were off despite less than tame weather conditions.   On Wednesday PM  NW winds blew 15-25 mph.  Thursday was slightly less at 10-20 with this morning flat calm.   We did catch 33 trout & one red during our 2 day trip.   Not terrible since there was no live bait & finding clean water challenging in such strong winds.  But sometimes you go even if the odds are against you.  For my son, it was a great trip.

Lots happened since I’ve been gone.   Ken Graham, the MIC (meteorologist in charge) of the local office of the National Weather Service was named the new Director of the National Hurricane Center.  This is great news since Ken has been forecasting hurricanes for decades and has a broadcasting background making him the perfect candidate for the job.   I’m sure he’ll do great in his new role.   Also, the past several days have seen huge crowds paying respect to Tom Benson.  He truly affected almost all of us sports fans by keeping the Saints & Pelicans here in NOLA.    I can remember the day back in 1998 when Mr. Benson purchased FOX 8.  At the first station meeting, he gave me a Saint’s #30 jersey since I was celebrating 30 years with Ch. 8.    I still have it, but regret not having him sign it.  Worse yet, I have a picture of my wife & I next to the 2010 Super Bowl trophy that I should have asked Tom to sign.  Regretfully, no autograph again.    But I have my memories.

After a stretch of cool, dry weather, this weekend will see us warm back to 80+.  In fact the next week looks warm and mostly dry with some rain possible with the next front next Thursday.  I’ll be finishing some yard work this weekend.  Enjoy what should be some great weather.  Stay tuned!

Spring Begins With Storm On Both Coasts...

What a change in the feel to the air today as not only were we 10-15 degrees cooler(70), but the lack of humidity made it feel great.  Drier air will mean cooler overnight lows, but under bright sunshine highs should recover to near 70.  I was out golfing today and the 15-25 mph winds made it difficult keeping the ball going where I wanted it.  Wednesday through Friday will see less wind and comfy cool temps with a warming trend by Friday PM.  The weekend should be back to near 80+.

 

Today is the astronomical beginning of Spring, but nasty winter-like weather is pounding both coast.   California is getting a real soaker while from the Ohio River Valley to New England,  it’s the 4^th Nor’easter in 4 weeks.  8-12”+ snowfall is likely from D.C. through Philly through NYC to Boston.  I hope none of you have travel plans up that way for the next 1-2 days.  Sooner or later, this persistent pattern of an east coast trough will break down, but we are likely to see it last into April.  That means we still can look forward to more cold fronts for another 3-4 weeks before the real heat of summer starts to show its face by late April.  Stay Tuned!

What The Hail...

Watching TWC tonight showing the large hail pounding Alabama breaking car windshields, and seeing the large hail that pounded Chauvin this morning with the same kind of hail that broke windshields and left marks all over the hoods and roofs of car, reminds me how lucky we are not to have those weather events very often.  Usually we are so warm that any hail often melts long before reaching the ground.  However, I do remember an event back in the early 80s that pounded my neighborhood (Bridgedale) in Metairie causing me enough roof damage that our whole block had to have new roofs.  It striped vegetation off trees & plants and left huge marks on the shingles of everyone’s roof.  Fortunately, insurance paid for it, but that was before the era of deductibles.   That severe threat is long gone from us and the next 3-4 days will be delightful…if you’re dressed for it.  You’ll notice a different feel to the air in the morning as the humidity will be much lower and that good feel air will hang around into late Friday & Saturday.  Fortunately, with the higher sun angle, the chill in the air should not be as intense as 2-3 weeks ago.  The wind will add to the chill on Tuesday, but Wednesday & Thursday will feel great with less wind.   A big warm up will return over the weekend getting us back up into the 80s as we head towards April. 

 

FYI…The Corp opened another 15 bays (183 out of 350) to make sure the River crest stays below 17’ at the Carrollton gage.  The crest has arrived and the river should stay steady for the next 2-3 days before falling later this week. 

Not A Washout...

Watching the local weathercasters & I see many of them using the phrase “not a washout” when the rain probabilities are 70% or higher.   What they should be saying is, “although rain chances are high, there will be many dry hours between showers.”  A classic example was Friday.   The morning forecast called for 70% chance.  I played golf with my friend Marvin and we were able to complete 18 holes in the afternoon.  However, there were far fewer golfers out than a normal Friday would see.  Why?  Could they have been scared off by the 70%?     So let’s review what probabilities mean.  #1…they have NOTHING to do with time.  If the forecast calls for 80% chance for rain, it could rain for 10 minutes and the forecast would be TECHNICALLY correct even though most of the day was dry.   What bothers me is weathercasters using 50% chance.  Really?  What does that tell you?   I never used 50% chance.  Either choose lower or higher, but give your viewers the idea that you are better than a coin flip.

 

We are in a weather pattern that has very fast upper disturbances racing west to east.   We have no fronts around us and it’s difficult to time these disturbances.  Our air mass is very juicy and it doesn’t take much to trigger storms.  It appears the disturbance in East Texas tonight will rumble our way for Sunday morning with the bulk of the storms staying north of Lake P.   The big Irish-Italian Parade should be OK IF the storms stay north.   We hit 81 today and should stay in that neighborhood Sunday & Monday.  A front will sweep through late Monday bringing cooler & drier air back for Tuesday through Thursday of next week.  Long range still shows no indication of any Arctic outbreaks coming and that is great news for gardeners.  We are not done seeing cold fronts, but at this time of the year it usually means pleasant temps & drier air.  Stay tuned!

Sunny, But Gloomy Day...

Under bright sunshine and 70 degree warmth, a gloomy mood set over our city after it was announced that Tom Benson had passed away.   All the local channels devoted their entire newscast and rightly so as Mr. Benson was the reason we still have the Saints & Pelicans.   Technically, I did work for Mr. Benson as he bought Ch. 8 for several years and I even remember taking a photo with my wife next to the Super Bowl trophy at our annual Christmas party in 2010.   My experience with Tom goes back into the late 80s when I was President of the local chapter of Big Brothers/Big Sisters.   We honored him as our “Man of the Year”  at our yearly fundraiser and I could always count on him buying a table before and after that event.   As the local news reported, Mr. Benson was a VERY generous man.  He knew what we were trying to do at BB/BS (Mentoring) was important to youths at risk and he was one of our biggest supporters.   I feel blessed to have crossed paths in life and know he has made this Planet a better place for all of us.

 

The next 4-5 days will see a warming trend, but several fast moving upper disturbances will bring the opportunity for some showers & T-Storms.  Friday might see some morning showers, but the main storms that develop will stay to our north & east.  A cold front will stall to our north and west on Saturday with small rain chances that appear to increase on Sunday.   With more parades this weekend, timing will be everything as there will be many dry hours between showers.  Highs should get well up into the 70s approaching or topping 80 Sunday & Monday before a weak front pushes through for early next week.  Another Nor’easter (#4) could bring more snow to the Northeast which is crying for a break from Winter.   It looks like the chill could last well into April for our friends up north.  Stay tuned!

Army Corps Of Enginners Knows...

When Katrina hit and the levees failed, the blame was placed on the Army Corps of Engineers for not following proper engineering rules in levee construction.  Frankly they were embarrassed.  Well, let’s give them credit when they’re right and they have been correct on opening the spillway bays to keep the crest of the Mississippi below the 17” crest needed to keep NOLA safe.  In fact, it appears the river will not reach the 17’ level as almost 150 bays have been opened to steer enough water into Lake Pontchartrain to keep the river mainly steady or slowly falling for the next week.   The only folks who are affected are those who operated vessels on the river.  The rest of us have no issues.

 

This has been an exception stretch of nice weather with cool mornings and pleasant afternoon.  Some changes are coming as south winds will bring back low level moisture and an upper disturbance will trigger showers and possible T-Storms on Friday.   As we head into the second half of March, I see no signs of any Arctic outbreak coming during the next 2 weeks.  That will place us into April  and almost guarantee no need to worry about frost or freezing weather.  I have been working on replacing my back fence and have completed 75% of it.   It’s a one day job for young folks, but at 70+, I’ve stretched it out for over a week.  I love seeing new growth in my plants, however, I’m discouraged seeing no growth in some plants I want to come back.   Spring is a great time of the year.  Enjoy what we have because we know what happens in May & June and lasts into September.  Stay tuned!

Mother Nature Running Behind...

Usually by now, my bird houses (4) have some activity as the mating cycle kicks in.  Not this year.  In fact, none of the houses even has a nest yet.    I’ve seen the ducks paring off around the ponds at Chateau so I know the spring season brings baby duckies and that looks on schedule.  But even my apartment /condo bird house has no activity.   I think the record warm February followed by a cool March has the critters all fouled up.   I know the fishing reports all show little trout activity, but that is normal as the trout season typically ramps up in April & May.   But why no birds?   They are around as my bird feeder is usually packed with sparrows, blue Jays & cardinals.  Maybe the next 2 weeks will start the process?

 

Today was delightful, if you were dressed for it.   While the East Coast is getting battered again by another Nor’easter, all we’re getting is the cooler and drier air rotating around the storm.   Tuesday & Wednesday should stay cool & dry with a warm up starting on Thursday lasting through the weekend.  Longer range, I see no big Arctic outbreaks coming so , if you are south of Lake P.   you can start the tomato plants growing.  Our chances for a frost  get very slim once we pass the 20^th historically.   It appears the Great Lakes to the North East is in for more cold & storms the next several weeks, but the core of the cold will stay with them & not us.     I’m still waiting to see any signs of life coming from my shrimp plants & hibiscus, but so far…nada.   I think the bell is about to toll for them.  Stay tuned!

 

The Mississippi River is supposed to reach the 17’ crest tomorrow at the Carrollton gage.  

Always a Special Day...

The Sunday before St. Patrick’s Day was always a special day when my kids were young.   I was fortunate enough to meet a man (Eddie Renton) who founded the Irish-Italian Parade that rolls the following Sunday.   Eddie, with his brother Billy, owned a printing shop on Metairie Road and they hosted a party for friends that gave us a perfect spot to watch the Irish Parade.  I remember many years when the parade had great weather and the crowds were HUGE.   Today was not one of those days as storms rolled through just in time to spoil all the activities.  Eddie passed many years ago, but his dream of joining the Irish with the Italians continues.  Hopefully next Sunday’s weather will be much better than today’s?

 

More cold air is returning for this week and you’ll need sweaters & jackets for the 1^st half of the week.  David mentioned the possibility of frost or a light freeze on the North Shore Tuesday & Wednesday mornings, which is a reminder that we still are officially in Winter.   Astronomical Spring does not arrive until the 20^th.   Late week will see a big warm up into the weekend before more cold returns next week.  Another snow storm is heading towards New England which will be the 3^rd Nor’easter in less than 2 weeks.  Lest you believe that has never happened before, Joe Bastardi of WeatherBell Analytics pointed out the same thing happened back in the 60s and late 70s.   Weather does has a way of repeating.  You just need to go back in time to see the same patterns that we see today.  Stay tuned!

FOX 8 Storm Tracker...

Today I was down at the Home & Garden Show to help promote my window advertiser, Acadian Windows.  Met many fine folks and enjoyed hearing how much I’m missed.  Appreciate the support from all of you who stayed with me over almost 40 years at Ch. 8.  What you should check out is the new FOX 8 Stormtracker vehicle that will really be important during a severe weather event.  It’s at the Home & Garden show and I checked it out before heading on over to the Acadian window booth.      The SUV is outfitted with all the gear that will allow the meteorologist go out into the field and search for any dangerous weather.    A camera is attached to the roof and it can span 360 degrees giving a live view of any possible tornadoes.  I’m looking forward to seeing it in action during our Spring severe weather season.   

 

We had a few brief showers today and more are likely ahead of our next cold front Late Sunday.   These showers could impact the big Irish parade for Sunday afternoon.  Highs will be back into the 70s before cooler and drier air requires sweaters & jackets Monday thru Wednesday.  Another brief warm up comes late week ahead of our next front on Saturday & Sunday.  February had  many days 80+, but this March is going to see many days struggling to get out of the 60s.  RIGHT NOW, I don’t see any Arctic breaks coming that could bring us freezing temperature to the South Shore.   Some 30s are possible North Shore Tuesday-Thursday mornings so frost could be a problem.   Sure beats the Nor’easters that keep hitting the NE Coast.   I enjoy living where all I have to shovel is the dirt in my garden! 

 

The Mississippi River has topped 16’ at the Carrollton gage and will slowly rise for another week.  The crest has passed Memphis and should reach us on the 13^th.  The Corps of Engineers will keep opening bays if needed to make sure the crest stays below 17’ at NOLA.  Stay tuned!

Brief Warm Up, More Cold Coming...

Today was as good as it gets with plenty of sunshine, low humidity & temps near 70.    You’ll notice a different feel to the air on Saturday as low level moisture will return along with warmer temps.  Some showers could develop during the day, but the better chances will arrive after midnight into early Sunday morning.  SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has us in the lowest risk for severe storms, but it appears the higher chances will remain farther to our north.   Colder air will follow for Sunday night into Monday with highs staying in the 50s & 60s and lows 30s North Shore and 40s south.   All in all, next week looks to be great if you’re dressed for it.

 

As I mentioned yesterday, I’ll be down at the Home & Garden show in the Super Dome on Saturday noon to 2 PM.  Come look for me at the Acadian Windows booth where I can guide you regarding what type of window you should buy.   They have a fabulous product that keeps out the heat of Summer and the cold of Winter.   Ch. 8 also has a booth displaying their new storm tracker SUV.  Come on down and stop by as I’ll be wandering around both places.  Hope to see you there.  

Home & Garden Show This Weekend...

Every year I look forward to the various shows (Boat Show, Sportsman Show) that indicate “ warmer weather is just around the corner.”  This weekend in the Super Dome it’s the Home & Garden Show.  Since I’m a spokesperson for Acadian Windows, I’ll be there on Saturday from Noon till 2 PM in their booth.  If you’re thinking about upgrading your windows, come on by and I’ll tell you my experiences with Acadian.  Ch. 8 also has a booth showcasing their new weather storm tracker SUV.  I might make a visit there too since I remain their hurricane consultant for 2018. 

 

Normally we are saying “warmer weather is just around the corner”, except this year had a record warm February and March is heading in the opposite direction.  In fact, after a brief warm up beginning tomorrow into early Sunday, our next cool down Monday through Thursday looks colder than the chill we now have.   Lots of below zero Arctic cold remains over Canada and a deep east coast upper trough will drive that chill into the Deep South.  The North Shore will certainty dip into the 30s with the possibility of a light freeze.  With the waters of Lake P. in the mid-60s, that should keep most of the South Shore above frost levels.  However, all gardeners should stay focused on the weather next week as we may need to “protect our tender vegetation”.  Daytime highs on Monday & Tuesday will struggle to get out of the 50s , and with a stiff north breeze, sweaters and coats will be necessary.   Looking beyond next week, the third week in March could see several severe weather outbreaks, mainly over the plains into the Ohio Valley.  March is already off to a wild start with 2 powerful Nor’easters and a third likely coming this weekend.   We were spoiled by a warm, tranquil February.  March will make up for it.  Stay tuned!

Cool Down is No Surprise...

To the readers of this blog, you’ll recall back in the warm spell last month I mentioned long range guidance suggested that March would be much cooler than February as the upper East Coast trough would return replacing the persistent upper ridge over the Southeast.  That has happened plus several Nor’easters have battered New England.  Hey, watching TWC show various locations with heavy snow coming down was kinda neat.  However, that nice white stuff will soon be a slushy mess tomorrow adding to the misery.   At least we down South have some warm ups between the cold spells and that’s what is on tap for this weekend.  After 2 chilly mornings, the warm up begins Friday PM and lasts through Sunday as we’ll get back to 70+, maybe even flirting with 80.   Another strong front will plow through on Monday and the 1^st 3 days of next week look chilly with highs back into the 60s & nights in the 30s & 40s.   I hope nobody has planted tomatoes or tropical plants as we still could have opportunity for frost & a light freeze.   The deeper we get into March, especially after the 20^th, the less likely we’ll need to worry about the cold.   I do remember many years back, we had a strong cold front move through in early April requiring sweaters & Jackets as highs stayed in the 50s despite all day sunshine.   The next 15-20 days will have many more below normal/average days and we are not finished with Winter-like chill despite the approach of Astronomical Spring on the 20^th.

 

While watching TWC (The Weather Channel) tonight, one of the “meteorologists” asked a resident of New Hampshire if they were prepared for this latest Nor’easter?  I had to chuckle because that’s like asking a New Orleanian in June…”are you prepared for the 95 degree heat?”   C’mon, it’s not like snow storms don’t happen in March.  In fact, this is their prime time for Nor’easters.  They are hardy people.  They have to be.  They are prepared. 

 

Spillway opens tomorrow.  Should be exciting video to watch.  Always is.  Stay tuned!

Weather, Like History Often Repeats...

I was watching the network news programs tonight all leading with another Nor’easter hitting New England.  This is coming on the heels of a powerful storm that still has some without power.   It reminds me of the ’67 Blizzard in Chicago that dumped 25-30” and shut down the city for days.  Right behind it the following weekend was another, weaker storm that dumped an additional 8-15’.  Some suburbs had over 3 feet on the ground.   Mother Nature often repeats herself, even with hurricanes.  After Katrina in 2005, Rita followed less than a month later.  In 2008 we had Gustav followed by Ike 2 weeks later.   This latest Nor’easter will not have the strong winds and huge storm tides. It will have more snow since there is colder air in place.  Some of the big cities (Philly, NYC, Boston) could see 6-12” with more further inland.   Sure makes me appreciate living down south.

 

This morning’s cold front came through with quite a punch.   I thought we’d be lucky to get .50” of rainfall.  WRONG,  many spots received 1-2”.  The drier air behind the front sure felt good this afternoon as temps stayed 65-70.  Wednesday & Thursday will stay cool and dry and coats & jackets will be needed, especially at night.   A brief warm up comes for Friday through Sunday before another strong front chills us for next week.   It’s good we get some more cold air as SSTs (sea surface Temps) over the northern Gulf are running way above normal/average.   I can see the hurricane gurus already making the northern Gulf the bullseye for storms this summer.   I’ll be off to the National Hurricane Conference in Orlando 3 weeks from today.   I’m sure there will be much talk about the coming season.  Let’s keep these fronts coming so we can knock down the warm Gulf just a little.

 

The Army Corps of Engineers has revised their Carrollton crest down to 15.9’ now since opening the Spillway on Thursday will send some of the Mississippi into Lake P. taking pressure off our levees.  Should be quite a sight for the news media as they pull up the wooden needles on Thursday.  Stay tuned!

Colder But Not Frigid...

Many blogs ago, I mentioned the 2^nd & 3^rd weeks in March would be colder than February.  That trend is about to begin as a cold front will sweep through around daybreak bringing some showers with maybe .50” of rain.  Cooler air will require a return to sweaters and jackets, especially during the overnight hours.  The North Shore could even see some 30s with patchy frost on Thursday morning as the winds subside.  Since the waters of Lake Pontchartrain have warmed into the mid to upper 60s, it’s unlikely the South Shore will get that cold.   A brief warm up begins on Friday into Sunday before another strong front will chill us for the beginning of next week.  RIGHT NOW, it doesn’t look like the setup is right for an Arctic outbreak as most of the chill will stay over the Great Lakes & Northeast.   It appears the main storm track will stay over the central & northern plains heading into New England and that should lessen the threat for any severe weather outbreaks over the South.   I hit Perino’s again today to pick up a couple of geraniums.   I like the peach & white colors.  Many of my in ground plants are sprouting out, but still no life from the hibiscus or shrimp plants.  My gut tells me they’re toast, but I will give them another 2-3 weeks before I yank them. 

 

The Army Corps of Engineers announced today that they will begin opening some gates on the Spillway this Thursday.   They want to keep the projected crest on the River here at 17’ and the only way to do that is allowing some of the flow to enter Lake P.  They believe the Spillway will stay partially opened for about 3 weeks.   Since the Ohio River above Cairo is still at crest, that tells me we’ll see high water for many more weeks.  Remember, it’s the Ohio River that provides 70% of the volume to the lower Mississippi with the other 30% coming from the Upper Mississippi & Missouri Rivers.  Be on the watch for heavy rains across the Ohio Valley during the next 2-3 months as that is the watershed that is more important to what happens down by us.  Stay tuned!

March Madness Coming...

The college basketball championship is often called “March Madness” and that term can also fit the weather at this time of the year.  The East Coast got hammered by a strong Nor’easter while California finally got back into their rainy season.  The east coast storm swept a cold front through us bringing an end to our record warmth, but more importantly taking away the muggies.   Today was superb and tomorrow will be the same with slightly warmer temps(73-77).   Another front approaches late Monday bringing some T-Storms into early Tuesday.  Colder air will follow this front with some 30s likely on the North Shore & 40s south.   A warm up comes for next weekend before an even stronger system plows through for the following week.  I warned you to not put away your sweaters as this month is going to see some wild temperature swings.   We’ll have to stay alert to see if any severe weather outbreaks develop since this is our severe weather season.  

 

The crest for the Mississippi River remains at 17 feet, but the Corps of Engineers indicated they might begin to open some bays on the Spillway as soon as Monday.   Regardless, we will have high river levels for the next several weeks affecting vessel traffic and fishing.  Get out and enjoy what looks like a terrific Sunday before changes return for Monday & Tuesday.  Stay tuned!

This is MY 2nd Aniversary...

Yep Gang, it was 2 years ago tonight that I said goodbye to my 45 years in broadcasting.  It started in Tampa back in Feb. 1971 (WTVT-TV Ch. 13), took me to Dayton, Ohio for 5 years (WDTN-TV2 1973-78) and eventually to NOLA 1978 to 2016.   It was a terrific ride with many ups and downs.   I was a Yankee(Hammond, Ind.) replacing a Legend (Nash Roberts) and that presented many challenges.   I did school talks, service clubs, bingos anything that would get my name out to the public.  But it was going on local radio in 1983 (B-97 FM, first with Scoot in the Morning & then with Walton & Johnson) that got me name recognition.   I did radio until 1989 when my body finally said I couldn’t be up until midnight and on the radio at 6 AM anymore.   I still did the school & service clubs talks, but radio was confined only to the afternoon hours.   It was a wonderful career that I left, but it was time to go, and I have no regrets.   David Bernard has done a wonderful job continuing the tradition of YOUR WEATHER AUTHORITY.  He is just what I wanted & I know most of you agree.

 

Wow, what a wonderful day with bright sun, low humidity & comfy temps.  Saturday looks to be another winner before some humidity & warmer air returns for Sunday & Monday.  A stronger front will; bring showers and much cooler air for much of next week with highs struggling to top 60 & lows in the 30s & 40s.  I have been warning you that Winter is not over and we’ll need the sweaters & coats for much of next week.  March will not be as warm as our record setting February and that below normal pattern could linger into early April.  That is not a bad thing as our daily normal/averages keep going up so that below normal just means “less hot” ! 

 

The Mississippi River Crest is forecasted on March 13h at 17.0’.  My feelings are that the Corps will NOT open any bays of the Spillway unless the forecast crest gets higher than 17’.  The current storm on the West Coast could bring more rain to the Ohio Valley next week, but it shouldn’t be enough to increase the crest here.  Stay tuned!

GOES West Successful Launch...

Being a “child of the space age”, I’m still impressed watching a rocket launch a payload into space. (Google space launch weather satellite GOES S)     Growing up it was Project Mercury followed by Gemini, Apollo & the Space Shuttle.   The thought of all the engineering requirements boggle my mind.   From simple black & white grainy satellite pictures (TIROS Program) to the current high resolution full color loops of the GOES program.  We’ve come a long way baby!  Add in the ability to map lightning and see through the atmosphere to determine low level winds is truly amazing.   Through the internet, you can now click on satellite pictures, determine the area you want to view, choose the channel (IR, VIS, Water Vapor etc) you want to watch & select the number of frames you want to loop.   It’s a weather geek’s paradise!   No need to watch your local weather program since they seldom show satellite loops and rarely explain what there are showing.  A lost art from the past as I mentioned last blog.

 

2 storms are battering both coast tonight.  The West needs the rain & snow while the East doesn’t.   The network news programs did their usual overhype and I’m sure many veteran New Englanders are wondering why all the fuss?  It’s called a Nor’easter and they happen every year during late February & March.   Will there be some negative impacts?   For sure, but it’s not like this has never happened before.  Watch for The Weather Channel to have Jim Cantore flapping in the gale out over the end of Cape Cod tomorrow morning.   For us, a weak cold front passed through that should put an end to our spell of record warmth (record high 84 today).   This isn’t much of a front as it’ll just get us back to where we should be for early March.  Another front will arrive late Monday into Tuesday with a stronger cold push, but there are no signs of any Arctic plunge coming.  A sign that the seasons are changing was the arrival of my lawn service guy today.  The grass is growing again and this was the first cutting since the deep freeze back in Dec-Jan.   Flowers are blooming, grasses are growing, trees are budding and allergy sufferers are struggling.   Spring!

 

Did you notice the article in The Advocate indicating the Army Corps of Engineers may have to open the Spillway as the revised crest at the Carrollton gage is now 17’?   More rain is falling over the Ohio River and more rain is forecast for next week.   We will be dealing with high river water for many weeks.  Stay tuned!