Sunday, January 29, 2023

Yesterday's Rainfall Forecast Nailed it!

The South Shore saw some morning showers, but the bulk of today's rains were over areas west and north of Lake P.  That is exactly what the computer forecast predicted yesterday.



You can see on the bottom graphic the numbers NWS predicted.  Baton Rouge has received over 4" while McComb is near 1.50+.  More rain is coming as a stalled boundary sits just to our north.





It feels Spring-like across the South Shore while the North Shore is in for more heavy rainfall.




The upper disturbance is over east Texas with a large rain shield stretching eastward into Georgia.  There is very little snow on the far NW side of this system.




The sprawling Arctic air mass has single digits down into Kansas.  The cold air cannot plow down to us since the upper flow remains from the SW.   In fact, another upper low is over California and will rotate around the trough and bring us some storms on Thursday turning colder for Friday & Saturday.  Until then, our weather will depend on where the frontal boundary sets up.  If it would stagger down to our south, we would chill into the 50s.  If it stays to our north, we'll be in the 60s & 70s with a daily fog issue.





So again I give you a 7 day forecast that has low confidence due to that uncertainty of the location of the stalled front.




Finally, here's the system over California that could bring us some storms on Thursday. 



It's not another Atmospheric River, but it is raining again with snow at the higher elevations.  If you're north of Lake P., pay attention this evening for more heavy rainfall.  Stay tuned!



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