It's All In The Upper Air Gang...

The deeper we get into May, the fewer opportunities for a real cold front to push down to the Gulf Coast.  Without the fronts to trigger the storms, we begin to refocus more on the Tropics & the weak upper air disturbances for the triggers for our rainfall.  Clearly, the surface map has no fronts around.  but look at the satellite view where  I've drawn the yellow lines to indicate the upper disturbances.

One such disturbance gave us storms between 1-3 pm with another over east Texas entering western LA with a third approaching the Rio Grande in northern Mexico.   You've heard that a strong "El Nino" is forming that should increase the westerly wind flow over the Gulf, Caribbean & Atlantic.  I've drawn that flow with the orange arrows.

It is difficult to time these upper disturbances and models are struggling.  Nicondra showed us one that indicates Tuesday will be another active day.

However, Bruce followed at 5 PM with a different model that was way less active regarding coverage.  My gut tells me, without a strong upper high/ridge center over us, I'm leaning towards the model that has more rain.

We will remain in the deep low level moisture (dew points 70+) for the rest of this week.  Perhaps by the weekend, the upper ridge builds farther to the north reducing our rain chances?

One thing for certain, we will not see another front until sometime late NEXT week.  Actually, highs in the 80s (even with humidity) doesn't seem awful.  Wait until our daily highs top 90-95!  Stay tuned!